Aaron Nesmith projections and prop bets for Indiana Pacers at Miami Heat on Feb 28, 2025
Aaron Nesmith Player Prop Bet: Points
Points Prop Bet Odds:
- Points 9.5 over: -105
- Points 9.5 under: -125
Trends Favoring The Over Points Prop Bet
Aaron Nesmith has made 53.8% of his shots from the field over the last 5 games, 7.5% higher than he's sunk overall this season.
Aaron Nesmith has successfully made 2.2 three-point shots per game over the last 5 games, 1.0 higher than he's made from three in all games this year.
In contrast to last season's 3.5 clip, Aaron Nesmith's personal fouls per game have been reduced this season to 2.6.
As it relates to shooting, the Indiana Pacers's terrific 123.4 points per game ranks 4th-highest in the league over the last 5 games.
This year, the opposition's starting SFs have averaged 12.2 shot attempts per game (7th-most in the NBA) against the Heat, designating this as a favorable matchup.
Trends Favoring The Under Points Prop Bet
The Heat have played at the most lethargic tempo in the NBA in their home city this year, which should lead to decreased possessions for the Indiana Pacers.
Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and result in additional opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Indiana Pacers rank 2ndworst in in the NBA with a mere 9.0 offensive rebounds per game this year.
Aaron Nesmith will not have the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing away from your home stadium tends to decrease player performance for all stats.
Projection For Aaron Nesmith Points Prop Bet
Aaron Nesmith is projected to have 10.8 Points in this weeks game.
Aaron Nesmith Player Prop Bet: Made 3 Point Shots
Made 3 Point Shots Prop Bet Odds:
- Made 3 Point Shots 1.5 over: 124
- Made 3 Point Shots 1.5 under: -160
Trends Favoring The Over Made 3 Point Shots Prop Bet
Aaron Nesmith has successfully made 2.2 three-point shots per game over the last 5 games, 1.0 higher than he's made from three in all games this year.
In contrast to last season's 3.5 clip, Aaron Nesmith's personal fouls per game have been reduced this season to 2.6.
In regard to shots from downtown, the Indiana Pacers's terrific 36.5% rate of converted threes away from home comes in as the 10th-highest in the NBA over the last 20 games.
Over the last 10 games, opposing starting SFs have averaged 5.5 3-point attempts per game (5th-highest in the league) vs. the Miami Heat, making this a positive matchup.
The rate of threes drained against Andrew Wiggins has been remarkably high (41.7%) when he is playing at home and defending other starting SFs since the start of last season (97th percentile).
Trends Favoring The Under Made 3 Point Shots Prop Bet
The Heat have played at the most lethargic tempo in the NBA in their home city this year, which should lead to decreased possessions for the Indiana Pacers.
Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and result in additional opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Indiana Pacers rank 2ndworst in in the NBA with a mere 9.0 offensive rebounds per game this year.
Aaron Nesmith will not have the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing away from your home stadium tends to decrease player performance for all stats.
Projection For Aaron Nesmith Made 3 Point Shots Prop Bet
Aaron Nesmith is projected to have 1.5 Made 3 Point Shots in this weeks game.
