Washington Nationals vs Boston Red Sox Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 11, 2024
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jake Irvin - Nationals
  • Cooper Criswell - Red Sox

Betting Odds

Washington Nationals vs Boston Red Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Washington Nationals vs Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

The Boston Red Sox are set to host the Washington Nationals in an Interleague matchup on May 11, 2024, at Fenway Park. The Red Sox, with a current record of 19-19, are having an average season so far, while the Nationals hold a slightly better record of 19-18.

On the mound, the Red Sox are projected to start right-handed pitcher Cooper Criswell. Criswell has started five games this season, boasting a 2-1 win/loss record and an impressive 1.74 ERA. However, his 3.76 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky so far and could face challenges going forward. The Nationals, on the other hand, are expected to start right-handed pitcher Jake Irvin, who has a 2-3 record and a 3.72 ERA this season. Irvin's 4.63 xERA indicates that he may also face difficulties in maintaining his current performance.

In terms of offense, the Red Sox rank 12th in MLB, while the Nationals rank 19th. However, the Red Sox excel in team batting average, ranking 3rd in the league, while the Nationals struggle in team home runs, ranking 29th. Both teams have an average ranking in team stolen bases.

The Red Sox bullpen is ranked 27th, while the Nationals bullpen is ranked last in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. This suggests that both teams may face challenges in their relief pitching.

Looking at the betting odds, the Red Sox are favored with a current moneyline of -155, giving them an implied win probability of 59%. The Nationals, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +135 and an implied win probability of 41%.

Overall, this game presents an interesting matchup between the Red Sox and the Nationals. While the Red Sox have the advantage in terms of projected starting pitching and offense, the Nationals may find opportunities against Criswell's low-strikeout rate and the Red Sox's struggling bullpen. With both teams having average seasons, this game could go either way.

It's important to note that these predictions are based on the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, which provides estimates of underlying talent regardless of year-to-date performance. As with any game, unexpected events and performances can occur, adding excitement and unpredictability to the outcome.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Jake Irvin has used his off-speed and breaking balls 7.1% more often this year (42.5%) than he did last season (35.4%).

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Keibert Ruiz has been unlucky this year, posting a .191 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .303 — a .112 deviation.

• Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.

Keibert Ruiz pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.7% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Among all SPs, Cooper Criswell's fastball velocity of 88.5 mph is in the 1st percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Tyler O'Neill has strong power (96th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a guarantee (27.9% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Jake Irvin struggles to strike batters out (22nd percentile K%) — great news for O'Neill.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

The Boston Red Sox have 3 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Wilyer Abreu, Tyler O'Neill, Garrett Cooper).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 51 games at home (+9.15 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 36 of their last 73 games (+16.50 Units / 22% ROI)
• Tyler O'Neill has hit the Singles Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 68% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Final Score: Washington Nationals 4.43 vs Boston Red Sox 5.02

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