Atlanta Braves

Atlanta Braves

May 11, 2024

New York Mets

New York Mets
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

  • Date: May 11, 2024
  • Venue: Citi Field
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Max Fried - Braves
    • Christian Scott - Mets

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Braves -155, Mets 135
Runline: Braves -1.5 115, Mets 1.5 -135
Over/Under Total: 7.5 100

Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
Atlanta Braves - 59% Atlanta Braves - 63.01%
New York Mets - 41% New York Mets - 36.99%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets Betting Preview

In a National League East matchup, the New York Mets will take on the Atlanta Braves at Citi Field on May 11, 2024. The Mets will be playing as the home team, while the Braves will be the away team.

The Mets currently hold a record of 18-19 this season, which puts them at an average performance level. On the other hand, the Braves have been having a great season with a record of 23-12.

The pitching matchup for this game features Christian Scott starting for the Mets and Max Fried taking the mound for the Braves. Scott is a right-handed pitcher, while Fried is a left-handed pitcher. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Fried is considered one of the best starting pitchers in MLB, ranking at number 4 out of approximately 350 pitchers. Scott, on the other hand, is ranked at number 46.

Scott has started one game this year and has an impressive ERA of 1.35. However, his xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky and could potentially perform worse going forward. Fried, with seven starts this season, has a record of 2-1 and an ERA of 4.23. His xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky and may perform better in the future.

In terms of offense, the Braves have been dominant this season, ranking as the fifth-best team in MLB. They lead the league in batting average and home runs, showcasing their power at the plate. The Mets, on the other hand, have an average offense, ranking 16th in MLB.

Based on the current odds, the Braves are the betting favorites with an implied win probability of 59%. The Mets, as the underdogs, have an implied win probability of 41%. The game total is set at 7.5 runs, indicating a potentially low-scoring game.

Overall, the Braves have been performing exceptionally well this season, both offensively and with their bullpen, which is ranked as the fifth-best in MLB. The Mets will need a strong performance from Scott and their offense to compete with the Braves' power. It will be an exciting matchup between these two division rivals as they battle it out at Citi Field.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Max Fried has a reverse platoon split and has the benefit of facing 7 opposite-handed hitters in this game.

  • A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Matt Olson has a good chance to have an edge against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the New York Mets only has 1 same-handed RP.

  • Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The Atlanta Braves projected batting order projects as the 2nd-strongest on the slate in terms of overall hitting ability.

  • A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes New York Mets:

In his previous game started, Christian Scott turned in a great performance and allowed 1 ER.

  • A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Extreme groundball bats like Starling Marte tend to perform worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Max Fried.

  • This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

New York's 89.4-mph average exit velocity since the start of last season ranks among the elite in baseball: #5 overall.

  • Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

  • The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 50 of their last 90 games (+13.60 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 62 of their last 106 games (+13.25 Units / 11% ROI)
  • Tomas Nido has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 5 games at home (+10.00 Units / 200% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets Prediction

Final Score: Atlanta Braves 4.19 vs New York Mets 2.96

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

-160
84% ATL
+132
16% NYM

Total Pick Consensus

7.0/-110
31% UN
7.0/-110
69% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

-1.5/+114
90% ATL
+1.5/-135
10% NYM

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
ATL
Team Stats
NYM
3.86
ERA
4.55
.240
Batting Avg Against
.248
1.28
WHIP
1.38
.300
BABIP
.297
8.7%
BB%
9.9%
24.5%
K%
22.5%
74.1%
LOB%
72.3%
.275
Batting Avg
.236
.502
SLG
.399
.847
OPS
.715
.345
OBP
.317
ATL
Team Records
NYM
17-10
Home
11-19
14-12
Road
11-14
20-15
vRHP
18-24
11-7
vLHP
4-9
12-12
vs>.500
15-25
19-10
vs<.500
7-8
5-5
Last10
2-8
10-10
Last20
5-15
14-16
Last30
9-21
M. Fried
C. Scott
42.0
Innings
N/A
8
GS
N/A
4-1
W-L
N/A
2.57
ERA
N/A
8.36
K/9
N/A
1.71
BB/9
N/A
0.43
HR/9
N/A
75.2%
LOB%
N/A
7.1%
HR/FB%
N/A
2.67
FIP
N/A
3.15
xFIP
N/A
.247
AVG
N/A
23.4%
K%
N/A
4.8%
BB%
N/A
3.30
SIERA
N/A

M. Fried

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
5/2 NYM
Bassitt N/A
W5-2 N/A
6
4
2
2
6
0
64-90
4/26 CHC
Stroman N/A
W3-1 N/A
6
4
1
1
4
0
61-89
4/19 LAD
Buehler N/A
W3-1 N/A
7
2
0
0
8
0
62-93
4/13 WSH
Gray N/A
L1-3 N/A
5.1
7
3
2
4
0
53-78
4/7 CIN
Mahle N/A
L3-6 N/A
5.2
8
5
5
5
1
56-84

C. Scott

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
ATL NYM
ATL NYM
-165
+140
-160
+132
-162
+136
-155
+130
-168
+142
-162
+136
-167
+143
-162
+135
-160
+135
-160
+135
-155
+125
-155
+130
Open
Current
Book
ATL NYM
ATL NYM
-1.5 (+107)
+1.5 (-128)
-1.5 (+110)
+1.5 (-136)
-1.5 (+110)
+1.5 (-130)
-1.5 (+114)
+1.5 (-135)
-1.5 (+102)
+1.5 (-122)
-1.5 (+114)
+1.5 (-137)
-1.5 (+102)
+1.5 (-127)
-1.5 (+110)
+1.5 (-136)
-1.5 (+110)
+1.5 (-130)
-1.5 (+110)
+1.5 (-130)
-1.5 (+110)
+1.5 (-135)
-1.5 (+110)
+1.5 (-130)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
7.5 (-103)
7.5 (-118)
7.0 (-109)
7.0 (-112)
8.0 (-105)
8.0 (-115)
7.0 (-110)
7.0 (-110)
7.5 (-110)
7.5 (-110)
7.0 (-112)
7.0 (-108)
7.5 (-118)
7.5 (-104)
7.0 (-107)
7.0 (-113)
8.0 (+100)
8.0 (-120)
7.0 (-110)
7.0 (-110)
7.5 (-115)
7.5 (-105)
7.0 (-110)
7.0 (-110)