St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 11, 2024
• Venue: American Family Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kyle Gibson - Cardinals
  • Freddy Peralta - Brewers

Betting Odds

St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

On May 11, 2024, the Milwaukee Brewers will host the St. Louis Cardinals at American Family Field in a National League Central matchup. The Brewers, with a season record of 23-15, are having a great season, while the Cardinals, with a record of 15-23, are struggling.

The Brewers are projected to start right-handed pitcher Freddy Peralta, who is ranked as the #6 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Peralta has a record of 3-1 this season with an impressive ERA of 3.49. He is expected to pitch around 5.6 innings, allowing an average of 1.9 earned runs and striking out 6.7 batters per game. However, Peralta has struggled with allowing hits and walks, projected to allow an average of 4.0 hits and 1.9 walks per game.

The Cardinals, on the other hand, will start right-handed pitcher Kyle Gibson. While Gibson has a record of 2-2 this season with a decent ERA of 3.68, his peripheral indicator, xFIP, suggests that he has been lucky and may perform worse going forward. Gibson is projected to pitch around 5.4 innings, allowing an average of 2.8 earned runs and striking out 4.5 batters per game. However, he is also projected to allow a high number of hits (5.5) and walks (2.1) per game.

In their last game on May 10, the Brewers faced the Cardinals and emerged victorious with a score of 11-2. The Brewers had a closing Moneyline price of -125, indicating a 53% implied win probability. The Cardinals, with a closing Moneyline price of +105, had a 47% implied win probability. The Brewers' offense ranks as the #3 best in MLB this season, while the Cardinals' offense ranks as the #28 best.

Based on the current odds, the Brewers are the big betting favorite with a moneyline of -175, implying a 62% chance of winning. The Cardinals, as the underdog, have a moneyline of +155, implying a 38% chance of winning. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, also projects the Brewers as the favorite with a 62% win probability.

With the Brewers' strong offense and Peralta's elite pitching, they have the advantage in this matchup. However, the Cardinals' power hitting could pose a challenge for Peralta, who has a high flyball rate. The Game Total for this game is set at 7.5 runs, indicating a low-scoring game.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Given that groundball hitters perform worse against groundball pitchers, Kyle Gibson (48.1% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this matchup with 3 GB hitters in the opposing team's projected lineup.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Dylan Carlson has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (50% of the time), but he is projected to bat 8th in the batting order in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Lars Nootbaar hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 96th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 8th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

Freddy Peralta's slider rate has risen by 7.8% from last season to this one (21.7% to 29.5%) .

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Sal Frelick's quickness has gotten better this season. His 28.51 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 28.99 ft/sec now.

• Fast players tend to get more hits as they leg out groundballs, more extra base hits, and more stolen bases.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected lineup for the Milwaukee Brewers in this game owns an estimated true talent wOBA of .318, which is quite a bit worse than their actual wOBA of .329 this year.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 21 of their last 31 games (+9.38 Units / 25% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 22 of their last 38 away games (+6.33 Units / 15% ROI)
• Alec Burleson has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 games (+16.60 Units / 166% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 3.67 vs Milwaukee Brewers 4.45

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