Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 28, 2024
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jake Irvin - Nationals
  • Max Fried - Braves

Betting Odds

Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

On May 28, 2024, the Atlanta Braves will take on the Washington Nationals in an exciting National League East matchup at Truist Park. The Braves, with a record of 30-21, are having a great season, while the Nationals, with a record of 24-28, are having a below-average season.

The pitching matchup for this game will feature Max Fried on the mound for the Braves and Jake Irvin for the Nationals. Fried, who is considered one of the best starting pitchers in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, has a record of 4-2 this season with an ERA of 3.38. He is a left-handed pitcher known for inducing ground balls, which could pose a challenge for the Nationals' offense that lacks power.

On the other hand, Irvin has struggled this season, with a record of 2-5 and an ERA of 3.79. His xERA suggests that he has been lucky this year and may perform worse going forward. Additionally, Irvin is a low-strikeout pitcher facing a Braves offense that ranks 6th in the league for strikeouts least.

Based on the current odds, the Braves are the betting favorites with an implied win probability of 68%. They have a strong projected team total of 5.13 runs, while the Nationals have a lower implied team total of 3.37 runs.

In terms of bullpen strength, the Braves rank 6th best in MLB, according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the Nationals rank 29th. This could give the Braves an advantage in the later innings of the game.

Overall, the Braves have the edge in this matchup with their strong offense, elite starting pitcher, and solid bullpen. However, the Nationals' recent offensive performance and the groundball tendencies of Max Fried could make this an interesting game to watch.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Jake Irvin in the 25th percentile when estimating his strikeout talent.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Nick Senzel has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (57% of the time), but he is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Washington Nationals' bullpen profiles as the 2nd-worst out of all the teams in the league.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Among every team in action today, the 5th-weakest infield defense is that of the the Atlanta Braves.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

The Washington Nationals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Matt Olson has a strong chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Jarred Kelenic hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.9% — 100th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 5th-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 31 of their last 51 games (+11.20 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 30 of their last 49 games (+9.08 Units / 14% ROI)
• Marcell Ozuna has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 26 games (+8.95 Units / 29% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Final Score: Washington Nationals 3.32 vs Atlanta Braves 5.66

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