Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Pick & Preview – 5/28/2024

Chicago Cubs

Chicago Cubs

May 28, 2024

Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee Brewers
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

  • Date: May 28, 2024
  • Venue: American Family Field
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Ben Brown - Cubs
    • Freddy Peralta - Brewers


Betting Odds

Moneyline:Cubs 135, Brewers -155
Runline:Cubs 1.5 -155, Brewers -1.5 135
Over/Under Total:8 100


Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:Projected Win %:
Chicago Cubs - 41%Chicago Cubs - 39.76%
Milwaukee Brewers - 59%Milwaukee Brewers - 60.24%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers Betting Preview

On May 28, 2024, the Milwaukee Brewers will take on the Chicago Cubs in an exciting National League Central matchup at American Family Field. The Brewers, with a season record of 31-22, are having a great season, while the Cubs hold a 27-27 record, making it an average season for them.

The Brewers are projected to start right-handed pitcher Freddy Peralta, who has been performing exceptionally well this season. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Peralta is ranked as the #11 best starting pitcher in MLB, showcasing his elite skills on the mound. In his 10 starts this year, Peralta has a 3-3 Win/Loss record with an ERA of 3.81. However, his 3.26 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform even better in the future.

On the other side, the Cubs are projected to start right-handed pitcher Ben Brown. Brown has made 12 appearances out of the bullpen this season, with a 1-1 Win/Loss record and an impressive ERA of 3.20. While his 4.77 xERA indicates that he has been lucky, his 2.64 FIP suggests that he has the potential to perform better going forward.

The Brewers' offense ranks as the #5 best in MLB this season, showcasing their talent and ability to score runs. However, their team batting average ranks #27, indicating room for improvement in that area. Meanwhile, the Cubs' offense ranks as the #20 best in MLB, with a solid team batting average ranking of #9. Both teams have shown strengths in different offensive categories, making it an interesting matchup.

In terms of the betting odds, the Brewers are the favorites with a current moneyline of -150 and an implied win probability of 57%. The Cubs are considered underdogs with a moneyline of +125 and an implied win probability of 43%. Based on the current odds, the Brewers have a high implied team total of 4.33 runs, while the Cubs have a lower implied team total of 3.67 runs.

With the Brewers having a strong season and the Cubs aiming to improve their performance, this game promises to be an exciting clash between two division rivals. Will Freddy Peralta's elite pitching lead the Brewers to victory, or will Ben Brown and the Cubs pull off an upset? Tune in to find out!


Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Ben Brown in the 87th percentile when estimating his strikeout talent.

  • THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.


It may be wise to expect better results for the Chicago Cubs offense in the future, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 5th-unluckiest offense in MLB this year.

  • When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.


Quick Takes Milwaukee Brewers:

The Milwaukee Brewers outfield defense projects as the 2nd-best among every team on the slate today.

  • Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.


Christian Yelich's batting average talent is projected to be in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

  • THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.


Milwaukee Brewers batters as a group rank in the cellar of baseball since the start of last season ( 6th-worst) when assessing their 88.3-mph average exit velocity.

  • Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.


Game Trends

  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 9 of their last 12 games at home (+5.70 Units / 40% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 48 games (+9.00 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Jake Bauers has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 9 games at home (+10.50 Units / 117% ROI)


Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Final Score: Chicago Cubs 3.61 vs Milwaukee Brewers 4.24

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

+140
14% CHC
-164
86% MIL

Total Pick Consensus

7.5/-115
2% UN
7.5/-105
98% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

+1.5/-148
22% CHC
-1.5/+124
78% MIL

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
CHC
Team Stats
MIL
4.22
ERA
4.04
.243
Batting Avg Against
.232
1.29
WHIP
1.22
.289
BABIP
.275
8.3%
BB%
8.2%
22.0%
K%
23.0%
71.1%
LOB%
73.6%
.255
Batting Avg
.233
.419
SLG
.377
.751
OPS
.689
.332
OBP
.312
CHC
Team Records
MIL
18-13
Home
19-11
14-22
Road
20-17
28-25
vRHP
31-20
4-10
vLHP
8-8
11-14
vs>.500
8-12
21-21
vs<.500
31-16
4-6
Last10
5-5
6-14
Last20
12-8
10-20
Last30
17-13
B. Brown
F. Peralta
N/A
Innings
128.0
N/A
GS
23
N/A
W-L
9-8
N/A
ERA
4.08
N/A
K/9
11.04
N/A
BB/9
3.38
N/A
HR/9
1.34
N/A
LOB%
71.5%
N/A
HR/FB%
14.5%
N/A
FIP
4.01
N/A
xFIP
3.76

B. Brown

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC

F. Peralta

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
5/4 CIN
rrez N/A
W18-4 N/A
5
5
3
3
7
2
63-98
4/28 PIT
Quintana N/A
W3-2 N/A
6
3
0
0
7
0
59-92
4/22 PHI
Suarez N/A
L2-4 N/A
5
3
1
1
6
2
54-89
4/15 STL
Mikolas N/A
L1-10 N/A
3
7
6
6
4
2
49-77
4/10 CHC
Stroman N/A
W5-4 N/A
4
3
3
3
6
4
46-88

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
CHC MIL
CHC MIL
Consensus
+125
-148
+140
-164
+136
-162
+140
-166
+124
-146
+140
-166
+125
-148
+138
-162
+135
-160
+140
-165
+125
-150
+135
-160
Open
Current
Book
CHC MIL
CHC MIL
Consensus
+1.5 (-151)
-1.5 (+143)
+1.5 (-151)
-1.5 (+125)
+1.5 (-148)
-1.5 (+130)
+1.5 (-148)
-1.5 (+124)
+1.5 (-150)
-1.5 (+140)
+1.5 (-150)
-1.5 (+125)
+1.5 (-155)
-1.5 (+143)
+1.5 (-155)
-1.5 (+125)
+1.5 (-145)
-1.5 (+135)
+1.5 (-145)
-1.5 (+122)
+1.5 (-155)
-1.5 (+135)
+1.5 (-155)
-1.5 (+125)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
7.5 (-119)
7.5 (-103)
7.5 (-119)
7.5 (-103)
8.0 (-105)
8.0 (-115)
8.0 (-108)
8.0 (-112)
7.5 (-122)
7.5 (+100)
7.5 (-122)
7.5 (+100)
7.5 (-118)
7.5 (-103)
7.5 (-118)
7.5 (-103)
8.0 (-105)
8.0 (-115)
8.0 (-105)
8.0 (-115)
8.0 (-105)
8.0 (-115)
8.0 (+100)
8.0 (-120)