Washington Nationals at Detroit Tigers Pick For 6/11/2024

Washington Nationals vs Detroit Tigers Details

• Date: June 11, 2024
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Mitchell Parker - Nationals
  • Kenta Maeda - Tigers

Betting Odds

Washington Nationals vs Detroit Tigers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Washington Nationals vs Detroit Tigers Betting Preview

The Detroit Tigers will host the Washington Nationals at Comerica Park on June 11, 2024, in what promises to be an intriguing interleague matchup. Both teams are having subpar seasons, with Detroit sitting at 32-33 and Washington at 30-35. This series opener will see Kenta Maeda on the mound for the Tigers against Mitchell Parker for the Nationals.

Kenta Maeda, a right-handed pitcher, has had a rough season, sporting a 6.25 ERA over nine starts. However, his xFIP of 4.82 suggests he has been somewhat unlucky and could perform better going forward. Despite his struggles, Maeda could find success against a Nationals lineup that ranks 28th in home runs this season, making his high-flyball tendencies less of a liability.

Mitchell Parker, a lefty, has been more effective with a 3.47 ERA across 10 starts. Yet, both pitchers project to have short outings, with Maeda averaging 4.9 innings and Parker 4.8 innings per start. The Tigers bullpen, ranked 13th by advanced-stat Power Rankings, should provide some stability compared to the Nationals’ 27th-ranked bullpen.

Offensively, neither team has been impressive. Detroit’s lineup ranks 25th overall, struggling particularly in batting average (24th) and home runs (24th). Washington’s offense fares slightly better in batting average at 22nd but is also near the bottom in power, ranking 28th in home runs. One bright spot for the Nationals is their team-leading 1st place ranking in stolen bases, which could pose a challenge for Maeda.

For the Tigers, Zach McKinstry has been the standout hitter over the last week, hitting .267 with a .867 OPS and 4 RBIs in five games. On the Nationals’ side, Jesse Winker has been red-hot, batting .500 with a 1.119 OPS, 8 hits, and 5 runs in his last six games.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Detroit is favored with a 57% win probability, significantly higher than their implied win probability from the betting markets. With both teams’ offenses struggling and the Tigers’ slight bullpen edge, this could be a tight, low-scoring affair.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Mitchell Parker has a large reverse platoon split and should be aided by facing 7 opposite-handed batters in this game.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Jacob Young's speed has decreased this year. His 30 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 29.54 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

The 4th-worst projected batting order of all teams on the slate in terms of overall hitting ability is that of the Washington Nationals.

• A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Kenta Maeda's fastball velocity has decreased 1.2 mph this year (89.2 mph) below where it was last season (90.4 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

As it relates to his batting average, Javier Baez has had some very poor luck this year. His .183 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .278.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

Detroit Tigers hitters jointly place 24th- in the league for power since the start of last season when judging by their 91.7-mph exit velocity on flyballs.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Game Trends

• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 45 games (+11.30 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 23 of their last 35 away games (+9.55 Units / 20% ROI)
• Matt Vierling has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 17 games at home (+7.25 Units / 38% ROI)

Washington Nationals vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Final Score: Washington Nationals 4.14 vs Detroit Tigers 4.59

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