New York Yankees vs Kansas City Royals Prediction & Odds – 6/11/2024

New York Yankees

New York Yankees

Jun 11, 2024

Kansas City Royals

Kansas City Royals
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

New York Yankees vs Kansas City Royals Details

  • Date: June 11, 2024
  • Venue: Kauffman Stadium
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Marcus Stroman - Yankees
    • Brady Singer - Royals

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Yankees -140, Royals 120
Runline: Yankees -1.5 115, Royals 1.5 -135
Over/Under Total: 9.5 100

New York Yankees vs Kansas City Royals Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
New York Yankees - 56% New York Yankees - 49.16%
Kansas City Royals - 44% Kansas City Royals - 50.84%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

New York Yankees vs Kansas City Royals Betting Preview

The Kansas City Royals, currently enjoying a solid season with a 39-28 record, are set to face off against the red-hot New York Yankees, who boast an impressive 47-21 record, at Kauffman Stadium on June 11, 2024, in the second game of their series. Both teams are having fantastic seasons and are looking to continue their strong performances as they march toward potential playoff berths.

In yesterday’s game, the Yankees secured a victory, showcasing their potent offense that ranks as the 2nd best in MLB. Aaron Judge, their standout performer, is coming off a scorching week where he posted a .500 batting average with a 1.830 OPS, 10 hits, 12 RBIs, and 3 home runs in just six games. His recent form will be crucial as they face Kansas City's Brady Singer.

Singer, the Royals’ projected starter, has been solid this year with a 2.76 ERA and a 4-2 record across 12 starts. However, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, suggests that his 3.39 xFIP indicates he has been somewhat fortunate and may regress. Singer’s strength lies in his 52% groundball rate, which could neutralize the Yankees' high-flying home run power, which ranks 2nd in MLB.

On the mound for the Yankees will be Marcus Stroman, who has also had a great season with a 3.04 ERA and a 5-2 record in 13 starts. However, his 4.49 xFIP suggests he might have been lucky, and his low 18.5% strikeout rate could be a disadvantage against the Royals’ disciplined offense, which is 3rd in MLB in avoiding strikeouts.

Kansas City's offense, ranked 9th overall according to advanced metrics, includes Hunter Renfroe, who has been on fire recently. Over his last six games, Renfroe has posted a .389 batting average with a 1.254 OPS, 7 hits, 6 RBIs, and 2 home runs.

Despite the Royals being listed as underdogs with a moneyline of +120 and an implied win probability of 44%, the matchup on paper could be closer than the odds suggest. Kansas City's balance between hitting and pitching, coupled with their ability to limit strikeouts, could make this a tightly contested game against the powerful Yankees lineup.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Marcus Stroman has averaged 92.8 adjusted pitches per outing this year, grading out in the 80th percentile.

  • Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

DJ LeMahieu has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (100% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this game.

  • The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Gleyber Torres has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.2%) and will have to hit them out towards the league's deepest RF fences today.

  • This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Brady Singer's sinker utilization has decreased by 10.3% from last season to this one (51.1% to 40.8%) .

  • Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker less often will likely be more effective than he used to be.

Salvador Perez's speed has improved this year. His 24.24 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 24.73 ft/sec now.

  • Fast players tend to get more hits as they leg out groundballs, more extra base hits, and more stolen bases.

The Kansas City Royals have been the 9th-luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse the rest of the season

  • When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Game Trends

  • Anthony Volpe has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 12 of his last 14 away games (+10.00 Units / 54% ROI)

New York Yankees vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

Final Score: New York Yankees 5.04 vs Kansas City Royals 4.84

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

-133
80% NYY
+113
20% KC

Total Pick Consensus

9.5/-115
42% UN
9.5/-105
58% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

-1.5/+114
97% NYY
+1.5/-135
3% KC

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
NYY
Team Stats
KC
4.06
ERA
5.20
.231
Batting Avg Against
.260
1.25
WHIP
1.41
.276
BABIP
.304
8.8%
BB%
9.1%
23.5%
K%
20.4%
73.2%
LOB%
67.1%
.232
Batting Avg
.244
.402
SLG
.394
.709
OPS
.695
.307
OBP
.301
NYY
Team Records
KC
24-13
Home
25-14
28-14
Road
17-22
43-18
vRHP
34-30
9-9
vLHP
8-6
22-16
vs>.500
13-21
30-11
vs<.500
29-15
4-6
Last10
3-7
12-8
Last20
7-13
19-11
Last30
13-17
M. Stroman
B. Singer
N/A
Innings
135.2
N/A
GS
24
N/A
W-L
8-8
N/A
ERA
4.91
N/A
K/9
7.70
N/A
BB/9
2.72
N/A
HR/9
0.86
N/A
LOB%
65.8%
N/A
HR/FB%
10.1%
N/A
FIP
3.89
N/A
xFIP
4.20

M. Stroman

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
5/1 MIL
Burnes N/A
W2-0 N/A
7
2
0
0
5
1
59-90
4/26 ATL
Fried N/A
L1-3 N/A
6
6
3
2
3
0
59-86
4/20 TB
Rasmussen N/A
L2-8 N/A
4.1
8
8
7
7
2
56-88
4/15 COL
Marquez N/A
L5-6 N/A
4
6
5
5
4
1
49-80
4/10 MIL
Peralta N/A
L4-5 N/A
5
2
1
1
3
3
42-79

B. Singer

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
9/28 CLE
Civale N/A
W6-4 N/A
0.2
3
3
3
0
1
6-14
9/20 CLE
McKenzie N/A
W7-2 N/A
7
6
2
2
7
1
62-97
9/11 MIN
Pineda N/A
L2-9 N/A
4.2
7
6
6
7
2
64-97
9/5 CHW
Cease N/A
W6-0 N/A
7
5
0
0
6
0
72-106
8/29 SEA
Gonzales N/A
L3-4 N/A
6
3
2
1
5
3
66-102

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
NYY KC
NYY KC
Consensus
-130
+110
-133
+113
-135
+114
-135
+114
-130
+110
-136
+116
-141
+120
-134
+114
-135
+115
-130
+110
-145
+120
-135
+115
Open
Current
Book
NYY KC
NYY KC
Consensus
-1.5 (+126)
+1.5 (-148)
-1.5 (+117)
+1.5 (-142)
-1.5 (+114)
+1.5 (-135)
-1.5 (+114)
+1.5 (-135)
-1.5 (+122)
+1.5 (-146)
-1.5 (+114)
+1.5 (-137)
-1.5 (+112)
+1.5 (-139)
-1.5 (+120)
+1.5 (-148)
-1.5 (+115)
+1.5 (-135)
-1.5 (+118)
+1.5 (-140)
-1.5 (+115)
+1.5 (-140)
-1.5 (+115)
+1.5 (-140)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
9.5 (+100)
9.5 (-121)
9.5 (-108)
9.5 (-113)
9.0 (-105)
9.0 (-115)
9.5 (-108)
9.5 (-112)
9.5 (+100)
9.5 (-122)
9.5 (-108)
9.5 (-112)
9.5 (+102)
9.5 (-122)
9.5 (-105)
9.5 (-115)
9.0 (-105)
9.0 (-115)
9.5 (-110)
9.5 (-110)
9.0 (-105)
9.0 (-115)
9.5 (-105)
9.5 (-115)