Houston Astros at San Francisco Giants Prediction For 6/11/2024

Houston Astros

Houston Astros

Jun 11, 2024

San Francisco Giants

San Francisco Giants
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Houston Astros vs San Francisco Giants Details

  • Date: June 11, 2024
  • Venue: Oracle Park
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Ronel Blanco - Astros
    • Jordan Hicks - Giants

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Astros -110, Giants -110
Runline: Astros -1.5 155, Giants 1.5 -175
Over/Under Total: 7.5 -110

Houston Astros vs San Francisco Giants Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
Houston Astros - 50% Houston Astros - 40.13%
San Francisco Giants - 50% San Francisco Giants - 59.87%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Houston Astros vs San Francisco Giants Betting Preview

As the San Francisco Giants and Houston Astros prepare for the second game of their series on June 11, 2024, both teams are looking to improve on their below-average seasons. The Giants hold a 32-34 record, while the Astros sit at 30-36. Yesterday's game saw the Giants edge out a win, adding a bit of momentum as they head into this matchup at Oracle Park.

Both teams are relying on their right-handed pitchers, with the Giants sending Jordan Hicks to the mound and the Astros countering with Ronel Blanco. Hicks, who has started 13 games this season, boasts an impressive 2.82 ERA but has been somewhat fortunate according to his 3.79 xFIP. He is projected by THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, to pitch 5.6 innings, allowing 2.2 earned runs while striking out 4.9 batters. However, his projected 5.3 hits and 1.7 walks allowed suggest he may face some challenges.

Blanco, on the other hand, has a similar ERA of 2.78 but an even higher xFIP of 4.20, indicating significant luck has been on his side. His projections include 5.3 innings pitched, 2.7 earned runs, and 4.9 strikeouts, with 4.9 hits and 2.2 walks allowed. Both pitchers' projections suggest a potential for regression.

Offensively, the Astros have a clear edge. Ranked 6th in overall offensive performance, they are 2nd in batting average and 4th in home runs. Chas McCormick has been hot over the last week, sporting a .375 batting average and a 1.125 OPS. Conversely, the Giants rank 14th in overall offense and 30th in stolen bases, despite being 11th in batting average. Heliot Ramos has been a standout for San Francisco recently, hitting .412 with a 1.407 OPS over the last seven games.

The Giants' bullpen, ranked 1st by advanced-stat Power Rankings, could be a decisive factor late in the game compared to the Astros' 12th-ranked bullpen. Betting markets reflect a tight contest, with both teams having an implied win probability of 50%, suggesting a close and competitive game is on the horizon.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Ronel Blanco's 2202-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 24th percentile out of all SPs.

  • Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Yordan Alvarez's 17.7% Barrel% (a reliable stat to measure power) ranks in the 99th percentile since the start of last season.

  • Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The 2nd-best projected lineup of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall hitting skill is that of the the Houston Astros.

  • A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Because groundball batters struggle against groundball pitchers, Jordan Hicks (52.1% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in today's game with 4 GB hitters in the opposing club's projected batting order.

  • This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Houston Astros have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Mike Yastrzemski has a strong chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

  • Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Francisco Giants' bullpen ranks as the best among all MLB teams.

  • Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

  • Yordan Alvarez has hit the Singles Over in 18 of his last 28 games (+10.25 Units / 36% ROI)

Houston Astros vs San Francisco Giants Prediction

Final Score: Houston Astros 3.74 vs San Francisco Giants 4.37

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

-101
36% HOU
-118
64% SF

Total Pick Consensus

8.0/-115
3% UN
8.0/-105
97% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

-1.5/+164
90% HOU
+1.5/-198
10% SF

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
HOU
Team Stats
SF
3.79
ERA
3.89
.237
Batting Avg Against
.247
1.26
WHIP
1.24
.289
BABIP
.302
8.7%
BB%
6.8%
24.0%
K%
23.1%
75.3%
LOB%
72.1%
.251
Batting Avg
.238
.417
SLG
.389
.740
OPS
.703
.324
OBP
.314
HOU
Team Records
SF
21-19
Home
20-17
16-21
Road
16-24
28-26
vRHP
28-26
9-14
vLHP
8-15
12-22
vs>.500
8-20
25-18
vs<.500
28-21
7-3
Last10
3-7
12-8
Last20
7-13
16-14
Last30
14-16
R. Blanco
J. Hicks
50.0
Innings
N/A
7
GS
N/A
2-1
W-L
N/A
4.68
ERA
N/A
9.18
K/9
N/A
5.04
BB/9
N/A
2.16
HR/9
N/A
79.7%
LOB%
N/A
18.5%
HR/FB%
N/A
6.15
FIP
N/A
5.16
xFIP
N/A
.250
AVG
N/A
23.4%
K%
N/A
12.8%
BB%
N/A
4.86
SIERA
N/A

R. Blanco

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC

J. Hicks

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
5/1 ARI
Davies N/A
W7-5 N/A
3.1
2
2
2
4
2
35-63
4/26 NYM
Bassitt N/A
L0-3 N/A
2
2
2
2
1
2
24-42
4/21 MIA
Lopez N/A
L0-5 N/A
3
2
1
1
3
2
25-46

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
HOU SF
HOU SF
Consensus
-112
-104
-101
-118
-112
-108
-102
-118
-112
-104
+100
-118
-112
-106
-103
-115
-115
-105
-105
-115
-115
-105
-105
-115
Open
Current
Book
HOU SF
HOU SF
Consensus
-1.5 (+148)
+1.5 (-178)
-1.5 (+161)
+1.5 (-200)
-1.5 (+150)
+1.5 (-180)
-1.5 (+164)
+1.5 (-198)
-1.5 (+146)
+1.5 (-176)
-1.5 (+164)
+1.5 (-200)
-1.5 (+150)
+1.5 (-190)
-1.5 (+160)
+1.5 (-205)
-1.5 (+143)
+1.5 (-170)
-1.5 (+158)
+1.5 (-190)
-1.5 (+150)
+1.5 (-185)
-1.5 (+155)
+1.5 (-190)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
7.5 (-120)
7.5 (+100)
8.0 (-106)
8.0 (-114)
7.5 (-115)
7.5 (-105)
8.0 (-105)
8.0 (-115)
7.5 (-122)
7.5 (+100)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-110)
7.5 (-115)
7.5 (-106)
8.0 (-106)
8.0 (-114)
7.5 (-115)
7.5 (-105)
8.0 (-105)
8.0 (-115)
7.5 (-115)
7.5 (-105)
8.0 (-105)
8.0 (-115)