Philadelphia Phillies vs Boston Red Sox Prediction & Picks 6/11/2024

Philadelphia Phillies vs Boston Red Sox Details

• Date: June 11, 2024
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Zack Wheeler - Phillies
  • Kutter Crawford - Red Sox

Betting Odds

Philadelphia Phillies vs Boston Red Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

On June 11, 2024, the Boston Red Sox will host the Philadelphia Phillies in an Interleague matchup at Fenway Park. With the Red Sox sitting on a 33-33 record, they’re aiming to find some consistency in what has been an average season thus far. Meanwhile, the Phillies boast a stellar 45-20 record, indicating a standout performance this season.

Boston will send Kutter Crawford to the mound. Crawford, who holds a 3.51 ERA this season, ranks as the 70th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, making him an above-average performer. Despite his solid ERA, his xFIP of 4.16 suggests he has been somewhat fortunate and could regress. He's projected by THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, to pitch 5.3 innings, allowing 2.7 earned runs and recording 5.0 strikeouts.

Opposing him is Zack Wheeler, the Phillies' ace and the 7th best starting pitcher in MLB. Wheeler has an impressive 2.23 ERA through his 13 starts, although his xFIP of 3.24 implies he too has benefited from some luck. Wheeler is expected to pitch 6.1 innings, allowing 2.3 earned runs and striking out 7.1 batters.

Offensively, both teams are packed with talent. The Red Sox have the 8th best offense, excelling in team batting average, home runs, and stolen bases. Dominic Smith has been their standout hitter over the last week, showcasing a .353 batting average and a 1.088 OPS with 6 hits and 4 RBIs in 6 games. Their Achilles heel, however, is their bullpen, ranked 30th out of 30 teams.

The Phillies’ offense is even more potent, ranking 5th in MLB. They excel in batting average, home runs, and stolen bases. Bryce Harper has been on fire recently, recording a .385 batting average and a 1.248 OPS in the last 4 games. The bullpen, ranked 3rd, has significantly contributed to their success.

With the Phillies favored at -160 and an implied win probability of 60%, they are well-positioned to start the series on a high note. The game total sits at 8.0 runs, suggesting a relatively balanced contest. The Red Sox's projected win probability of 40% and implied team total of 3.58 runs illustrates the challenge they face against an elite Phillies squad. However, with their strong offense and home-field advantage, the Red Sox have the potential to pull off an upset.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Compared to average, Zack Wheeler has been given more leash than the average pitcher this year, recording an extra 9.2 adjusted pitches each outing.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Bats such as Johan Rojas with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Kutter Crawford who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Philadelphia Phillies have been the 6th-luckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress in the future

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Kutter Crawford's curveball percentage has fallen by 6.6% from last season to this one (12.1% to 5.5%) .

• Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Enmanuel Valdez is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 74% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The Boston Red Sox bullpen profiles as the worst in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 21 games at home (+7.60 Units / 33% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 33 of their last 46 games (+17.70 Units / 22% ROI)
• Bryson Stott has hit the Total Bases Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+14.40 Units / 49% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 5.05 vs Boston Red Sox 3.73

Get daily MLB picks here.