Chicago Cubs vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Pick & Preview – 6/11/2024

Chicago Cubs vs Tampa Bay Rays Details

• Date: June 11, 2024
• Venue: Tropicana Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jameson Taillon - Cubs
  • Zach Eflin - Rays

Betting Odds

Chicago Cubs vs Tampa Bay Rays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago Cubs vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

On June 11, 2024, the Tampa Bay Rays will host the Chicago Cubs at Tropicana Field in an interleague matchup. This game marks the beginning of a series between the two teams, both of which are having below-average seasons. The Rays currently hold a 31-35 record, while the Cubs are slightly better at 32-34. Both teams are looking to turn their seasons around, and this game could be a crucial step.

The Rays are projected to start Zach Eflin, who has been somewhat unlucky this season. Eflin, ranked as the 46th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, has a 4.14 ERA but a more favorable 3.47 xERA, suggesting better days could be ahead. Despite his below-average win-loss record of 3-4, Eflin's peripheral stats indicate he has pitched better than his results show. Additionally, Eflin's low walk rate (1.5 BB%) could neutralize the Cubs' patient approach at the plate, diminishing one of their offensive strengths.

On the mound for the Cubs will be Jameson Taillon, who boasts a strong 3.47 ERA but may have been a bit lucky given his 4.37 xFIP. Taillon's high flyball rate (38 FB%) could play to his advantage against a Rays lineup that ranks 30th in the league with just 49 home runs this season. However, Taillon's projections are less favorable: he is expected to allow 2.6 earned runs over 5.5 innings, which is above average.

Offensively, both teams have struggled. The Rays rank 24th in overall offensive Power Rankings, 20th in batting average, and dead last in home runs. On the bright side, they rank 6th in stolen bases, providing a dynamic element to their offense. The Cubs, meanwhile, rank 20th in overall offense, 26th in batting average, and 19th in home runs, but do better in stolen bases, ranking 11th.

The Rays are slight favorites with a current moneyline of -140 and an implied win probability of 56%. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, their pitching edge with Eflin and the Cubs' offensive struggles give them a slight edge. However, with both teams' offenses underperforming, the game total is set at a low 7.5 runs, indicating a potentially tight and low-scoring affair.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

Jameson Taillon's sinker percentage has dropped by 5.2% from last season to this one (10.7% to 5.5%) .

• Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker less often will likely be more effective than he used to be.

This season, there has been a decline in Miguel Amaya's quickness with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 26.18 ft/sec last year to 24.8 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

The Chicago Cubs have been the 4th-unluckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better in future games

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Zach Eflin's 90.7-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 12th percentile out of all starting pitchers.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.292) suggests that Yandy Diaz has experienced some negative variance this year with his .246 actual batting average.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

Tampa Bay's 89.4-mph average exit velocity since the start of last season is among the best in the league: #5 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 34 of their last 54 games (+11.35 Units / 18% ROI)
• Cody Bellinger has hit the Runs Under in 19 of his last 27 games (+7.85 Units / 19% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Final Score: Chicago Cubs 4.06 vs Tampa Bay Rays 4.28

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