Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 8, 2024
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Chris Bassitt - Blue Jays
  • Aaron Nola - Phillies

Betting Odds

Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

On May 8, 2024, the Philadelphia Phillies will host the Toronto Blue Jays in an Interleague matchup at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies, with a season record of 26-11, are having a great season, while the Blue Jays, with a record of 16-20, are struggling.

The Phillies are projected to start their ace right-handed pitcher, Aaron Nola. Nola has been impressive this season, with a win/loss record of 4-1 and an ERA of 3.32. However, advanced-stat Power Rankings suggest that Nola has been somewhat lucky this season, with peripheral indicators like SIERA, xERA, and FIP pointing towards potential regression in his performance.

On the other side, the Blue Jays will send Chris Bassitt to the mound. Bassitt has a record of 2-5 this season and an ERA of 5.45. However, his xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky, suggesting that he may perform better going forward.

The Phillies have a potent offense, ranking as the 3rd best in MLB this season. They excel in team batting average and stolen bases, ranking 8th and 10th respectively. The Blue Jays, on the other hand, have a struggling offense, ranking 20th overall. However, their team batting average is impressive, ranking 5th in MLB.

Based on the current odds, the Phillies are the betting favorites with a moneyline of -150, implying a win probability of 58%. The Blue Jays are the underdogs with a moneyline of +130, implying a win probability of 42%.

The Phillies' best hitter this season has been Bryce Harper, who has been on fire in the last seven games. He has recorded 8 hits, 7 runs, 10 RBIs, and 3 home runs, with a batting average of .444 and an OPS of 1.544. The Blue Jays' best hitter in the last seven games has been Danny Jansen, who has recorded 6 hits, 4 runs, 1 home run, with a batting average of .429 and an OPS of 1.357.

With the Phillies' strong offense and Nola on the mound, they have the advantage in this matchup. However, baseball is unpredictable, and the Blue Jays have the potential to put up a fight. It will be an exciting game to watch.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Chris Bassitt has been granted more leash than the average pitcher this year, recording 7.8 more adjusted pitches-per-start than league average.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

George Springer has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his wOBA this year; his .260 rate is significantly deflated relative to his .394 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 5th-least strikeout-prone lineup today is the Toronto Blue Jays with a 19.8% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Aaron Nola will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against 6 opposing hitters in today's game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Brandon Marsh is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card today, which would be an upgrade from his 76% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The Philadelphia Phillies bullpen grades out as the 3rd-best in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Run Line in 39 of their last 70 games (+11.85 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Under in 61 of their last 111 games (+11.50 Units / 9% ROI)
• Kyle Schwarber has hit the Runs Over in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.55 Units / 59% ROI)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 4.25 vs Philadelphia Phillies 4.79

Get daily MLB picks here.