Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 8, 2024
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Reese Olson - Tigers
  • Tanner Bibee - Guardians

Betting Odds

Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

In a highly anticipated American League Central matchup, the Cleveland Guardians will take on the Detroit Tigers at Progressive Field on May 8, 2024. The Guardians, who boast a strong record of 23-13 this season, are having an impressive campaign. On the other hand, the Tigers have performed above average with a record of 19-17.

The Guardians, as the home team, will have the advantage of the Progressive Field crowd behind them. They are projected to start right-handed pitcher Tanner Bibee, who has been ranked as the #52 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Bibee has started seven games this season, with a win-loss record of 2-1 and an ERA of 4.46. However, his 3.80 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward.

On the mound for the Tigers will be right-handed pitcher Reese Olson. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Olson is ranked as the #78 best starting pitcher in MLB. He has started six games this season, with a win-loss record of 0-4 and an excellent ERA of 2.70. However, his 4.02 xFIP indicates that he has been lucky and is likely to perform worse going forward.

The Guardians offense ranks as the 14th best in MLB this season, with an average team batting average. However, they have struggled in the power department, ranking 30th in team home runs. On the other hand, their speed on the basepaths has been a strength, as they rank 7th in team stolen bases.

The Tigers offense, while ranking lower than the Guardians, has shown some power with 27th in team home runs. However, they have struggled in team batting average, ranking 27th. Additionally, they rank 28th in team stolen bases.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects the Guardians as the favorite for this game with a win probability of 57%. The Tigers, on the other hand, are projected as the underdog with a win probability of 43%.

Based on the current odds, the Guardians have an average implied team total of 3.98 runs, while the Tigers have a low implied team total of 3.52 runs. THE BAT X projects the Guardians to score 4.44 runs on average in this game, compared to the Tigers' projection of 4.05 runs.

Considering the pitching matchup and offensive rankings, the Guardians have the advantage in this game. However, anything can happen in baseball, and the Tigers will be looking to defy the odds and come out with a victory. It should be an exciting matchup between these two AL Central teams.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

Reese Olson has utilized his change-up 8.2% more often this season (23.4%) than he did last season (15.2%).

• Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

This season, there has been a decline in Zach McKinstry's speed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 28.53 ft/sec last year to 28.06 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

The Detroit Tigers have been the 9th-unluckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better going forward

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

The Cleveland Guardians infield defense projects as the best out of all the teams playing today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.300) may lead us to conclude that Tyler Freeman has experienced some negative variance since the start of last season with his .224 actual batting average.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cleveland Guardians' bullpen ranks as the 4th-best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 47 games at home (+9.45 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 32 of their last 61 away games (+15.40 Units / 22% ROI)
• Colt Keith has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 17 games (+12.30 Units / 55% ROI)

Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Final Score: Detroit Tigers 4.01 vs Cleveland Guardians 4.39

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.