Chicago White Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 8, 2024
• Venue: Tropicana Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Chris Flexen - White Sox
  • Aaron Civale - Rays

Betting Odds

Chicago White Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago White Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays are set to host the Chicago White Sox in an American League matchup on May 8, 2024, at Tropicana Field. The Rays, with a record of 19-18, are having an average season, while the White Sox, with a record of 8-28, are struggling and having a terrible season.

The Rays are projected to start right-handed pitcher Aaron Civale, who has had an average season so far. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Civale is considered the #95 best starting pitcher in MLB, suggesting he is an average performer. In his seven starts this year, Civale holds a 2-2 Win/Loss record with an ERA of 6.14. However, his 3.44 xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward.

On the other hand, the White Sox are projected to start right-handed pitcher Chris Flexen, who has struggled this season. Flexen's ERA stands at 4.85, below average, and his 5.42 FIP suggests that he has been lucky and is likely to perform worse in upcoming games.

The Rays offense ranks as the #17 best in MLB this season, demonstrating average talent. They excel in team batting average, ranking #9, and team home runs, ranking #4. They also possess a strong base-running game, ranking #2 in team stolen bases. Conversely, the White Sox offense ranks as the #30 worst in MLB, indicating significant struggles in their offensive performance.

The Rays enter this game as the home team and are considered the favorite, with a current moneyline of -230 and an implied win probability of 67%. The White Sox, as the away team, are the underdogs, with a current moneyline of +195 and an implied win probability of 33%.

With the Rays' solid offense and Civale's average performance, they have the advantage against a struggling White Sox team and Flexen's subpar pitching. However, Flexen's high flyball rate could be a concern against the Rays' powerful lineup.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Among every team today, the worst outfield defense belongs to the Chicago White Sox.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Andrew Benintendi is apt to have an advantage against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Tampa Bay Rays has just 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Tommy Pham hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40% — 98th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 9th-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Recording 91.4 adjusted pitches per start this year on average, Aaron Civale falls in the 76th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Isaac Paredes is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the weak outfield defense of Chicago (#1-worst on the slate).

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

It may be wise to expect worse results for the Tampa Bay Rays offense in the future, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 10th-luckiest offense in baseball this year.

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Over in 32 of their last 52 games (+11.65 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 59 of their last 104 games (+13.95 Units / 12% ROI)
• Randy Arozarena has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+12.50 Units / 55% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Final Score: Chicago White Sox 3.61 vs Tampa Bay Rays 5.17

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