Houston Astros vs New York Yankees Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 8, 2024
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Spencer Arrighetti - Astros
  • Carlos Rodon - Yankees

Betting Odds

Houston Astros vs New York Yankees Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Houston Astros vs New York Yankees Betting Preview

In an American League matchup, the New York Yankees will face off against the Houston Astros at Yankee Stadium on May 8, 2024. The Yankees, with a record of 24-13, are having a great season, while the Astros, with a record of 12-23, are struggling. This game is the second in the series between these two teams.

The Yankees will be the home team, and they have the advantage of playing in their own stadium. They are projected to start left-handed pitcher Carlos Rodon, who has been performing above average according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Rodon has started seven games this year, with a win/loss record of 2-2 and an ERA of 3.68. However, his xFIP suggests that he has been lucky this season and may not perform as well going forward.

On the other hand, the Astros will start right-handed pitcher Spencer Arrighetti. Arrighetti has struggled this season, with a win/loss record of 0-3 and an ERA of 8.27. However, his xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky and may improve in future performances.

The Yankees have a strong offense, ranking as the 7th best in MLB. However, their team batting average is one of the worst in the league, ranking 29th. They make up for it with their power, ranking 8th in home runs. The Astros also have a solid offense, ranking 6th best in MLB. Their team batting average is average, ranking 14th, and they rank 9th in home runs.

Based on the current odds, the Yankees are the betting favorites with a moneyline of -140, implying a win probability of 56%. The Astros are the underdogs with a moneyline of +120, suggesting a win probability of 44%.

With a strong offense and a better pitcher on the mound, the Yankees seem to have the advantage in this game. However, baseball is unpredictable, and anything can happen on any given day. It will be an exciting matchup between these two teams as they battle it out on the field.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Compared to the average starter, Spencer Arrighetti has been granted less leash than the average pitcher since the start of last season, throwing an -11.3 fewer adjusted pitches each outing.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Yainer Diaz is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 71% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Today, Jose Altuve is at a disadvantage facing the league's 7th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 41.2% rate (99th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Carlos Rodon has added a cut-fastball to his arsenal this year and has worked it in 12.6% of the time.

• Adding an extra pitch often leads to more success because it makes the pitcher more unpredictable and keeps hitters guessing more, and change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use.

The Houston Astros have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Anthony Rizzo stands a good chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The New York Yankees projected batting order projects as the 2nd-strongest of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall offensive ability.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 34 games (+6.85 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 30 away games (+16.10 Units / 42% ROI)
• Alex Verdugo has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 24 games (+9.15 Units / 38% ROI)

Houston Astros vs New York Yankees Prediction

Final Score: Houston Astros 5.24 vs New York Yankees 5.95

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