Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota Twins Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 8, 2024
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • George Kirby - Mariners
  • Chris Paddack - Twins

Betting Odds

Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota Twins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota Twins Betting Preview

The Minnesota Twins are set to face off against the Seattle Mariners on May 8, 2024, at Target Field. As the home team, the Twins will look to continue their impressive season with a record of 20-15, while the Mariners, as the away team, aim to build on their 20-16 record.

On the mound, the Twins are projected to start right-handed pitcher Chris Paddack, who has been average according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Paddack has started six games this season, boasting a 3-1 win/loss record with an ERA of 4.78. However, his 3.92 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward.

Opposing Paddack is the Mariners' right-handed pitcher, George Kirby, who has been great this season according to our Power Rankings. Kirby has started seven games, with a 3-2 win/loss record and an impressive ERA of 3.76. His 3.12 xFIP indicates that he has been unlucky as well, suggesting potential improvement in his performances.

In terms of offense, the Twins rank 12th in MLB, showcasing an average level of talent. However, their team batting average ranks 22nd, indicating room for improvement. On the other hand, the Mariners' offense ranks 22nd overall, with a team batting average ranking of 24th.

Both teams have had their strengths and weaknesses this season, with the Twins excelling in home runs (ranked 7th) but struggling in stolen bases (ranked 24th). The Mariners, meanwhile, have shown power with their 13th ranking in home runs but have struggled in stolen bases as well (ranked 18th).

Considering the projections, Paddack is expected to pitch around 5.3 innings, allowing an average of 2.5 earned runs and striking out 5.2 batters. However, he is projected to struggle with allowing hits and walks. Kirby, on the other hand, is expected to pitch around 5.6 innings, allowing an average of 2.2 earned runs and striking out 5.9 batters. However, he is also projected to struggle with hits and walks.

In terms of betting odds, the Twins have a moneyline of +100, implying a win probability of 48%, while the Mariners have a moneyline of -120, suggesting a win probability of 52%. This indicates that the game is expected to be closely contested.

With all these factors in mind, the stage is set for an intriguing matchup between the Twins and the Mariners. Both teams have had their successes this season, and it will be interesting to see how their strengths and weaknesses play out on the field.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

George Kirby projects for 16.6 outs today, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Mitch Haniger's speed has decreased this season. His 26.65 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 25.7 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Seattle Mariners' bullpen grades out as the 10th-worst among all the teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Chris Paddack has been unlucky this year, notching a 4.78 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 4.22 — a 0.56 gap.

• Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.240) may lead us to conclude that Ryan Jeffers has been lucky since the start of last season with his .282 actual batting average.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

Today, Edouard Julien is at a disadvantage facing the league's 11th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 40.8% rate (98th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 51 of their last 83 games (+12.90 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 30 of their last 47 away games (+10.92 Units / 20% ROI)
• Josh Rojas has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+7.55 Units / 29% ROI)

Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Final Score: Seattle Mariners 4.41 vs Minnesota Twins 3.96

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