Toronto Blue Jays vs Washington Nationals Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 5, 2024
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Alek Manoah - Blue Jays
  • MacKenzie Gore - Nationals

Betting Odds

Toronto Blue Jays vs Washington Nationals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Washington Nationals Betting Preview

On May 5, 2024, the Washington Nationals will face off against the Toronto Blue Jays at Nationals Park in an Interleague matchup. The Nationals, with a record of 16-17 this season, are having a below-average season, while the Blue Jays, with a record of 16-18, are also struggling.

The Nationals are projected to start left-handed pitcher MacKenzie Gore, who has started six games this year. With a win/loss record of 2-3 and an ERA of 3.19, Gore has been performing well. His 2.69 FIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward. Gore is expected to pitch an average of 5.3 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs, striking out 5.0 batters, and giving up 4.9 hits and 2.1 walks on average.

The Blue Jays will counter with right-handed pitcher Alek Manoah, who has an average projection. Manoah is expected to pitch 5.6 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs, striking out 3.8 batters, and giving up 5.4 hits and 1.9 walks on average. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Manoah is considered a below-average pitcher by MLB standards.

In terms of offense, the Nationals rank 18th in MLB, while the Blue Jays rank 19th. The Nationals excel in team batting average, ranking 6th in the league, but struggle in home runs, ranking 29th. The Blue Jays have a great team batting average, ranking 5th, but are average in home runs, ranking 15th. Both teams rank average in stolen bases.

Overall, this game is expected to be a close matchup. The Nationals will rely on MacKenzie Gore's strong performance, while the Blue Jays will look to take advantage of the Nationals' struggling bullpen. With both teams having below-average seasons, it will be interesting to see which team comes out on top in this Interleague clash.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Ranking in the 18th percentile, Alek Manoah put up an 8.9% Swinging Strike percentage since the start of last season.

• Swinging Strike% measures how often a pitcher gets a batter to whiff at a pitch and is regarded to be a strong indicator of strikeout ability and overall pitching talent.

Davis Schneider is an extreme flyball batter and squares off against the weak outfield defense of Washington (#3-worst on the slate).

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Toronto Blue Jays bats jointly rank in the cellar of Major League Baseball since the start of last season ( 8th-worst) when it comes to their 88.6-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Throwing 91.5 adjusted pitches per GS this year on average, MacKenzie Gore places in the 75th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Nick Senzel is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 60% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Keibert Ruiz pulls many of his flyballs (38.3% — 96th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 10th-shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 43 of their last 87 games (+22.15 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Under in 52 of their last 96 games (+8.10 Units / 8% ROI)
• CJ Abrams has hit the Home Runs Over in 7 of his last 28 games (+24.40 Units / 87% ROI)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 4.69 vs Washington Nationals 4.12

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