Chicago White Sox vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 5, 2024
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Garrett Crochet - White Sox
  • Matthew Liberatore - Cardinals

Betting Odds

Chicago White Sox vs St. Louis Cardinals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago White Sox vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

On May 5, 2024, the St. Louis Cardinals will be hosting the Chicago White Sox at Busch Stadium in an Interleague matchup. The Cardinals have had a below average season so far with a record of 15-18, while the White Sox have struggled, with a record of 7-26.

The Cardinals are projected to start left-handed pitcher Matthew Liberatore, who has shown promise with a 2.76 ERA this season. However, his peripheral indicator suggests that he may have been lucky and could perform worse going forward. On the other hand, the White Sox will send left-handed pitcher Garrett Crochet to the mound. Despite a high ERA of 5.97, his peripheral indicator suggests that he has been unlucky and could perform better in the future.

This game marks the third game in the series between these two teams. In their last matchup, the White Sox came out on top with a 6-5 victory. However, the Cardinals were considered the heavy favorites to win with a closing Moneyline price of -170 and an implied win probability of 62%. The White Sox, as underdogs, had a closing Moneyline price of +155 with an implied win probability of 38%.

The Cardinals offense has been ranked as the 27th best in MLB this season, but they have shown power, ranking 5th in team home runs. The White Sox offense, on the other hand, has struggled and is ranked as the worst in the league.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Cardinals are projected to have a 61% chance of winning, while the White Sox have a 39% chance. The Cardinals are currently the betting favorites with a moneyline of -155, implying a 59% chance of winning, while the White Sox are underdogs with a moneyline of +135, implying a 41% chance of winning.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

With 6 bats who hit from the other side in the opposing team's projected lineup, Garrett Crochet will have a tough matchup while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's outing.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Paul DeJong has strong power (78th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a sure thing (31.4% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Matthew Liberatore is a pitch-to-contact type (8th percentile K%) — great news for DeJong.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

The Chicago White Sox bullpen profiles as the 4th-worst in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

The St. Louis Cardinals infield defense projects as the 2nd-strongest out of all the teams playing today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

This season, there has been a decline in Masyn Winn's speed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 29.13 ft/sec last year to 28.59 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Nolan Arenado pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (43.2% — 100th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the game's 6th-deepest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 56 games (+3.80 Units / 6% ROI)
• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 71 of their last 127 games (+15.00 Units / 11% ROI)
• Paul Goldschmidt has hit the RBIs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+6.55 Units / 30% ROI)

Chicago White Sox vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Final Score: Chicago White Sox 3.65 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.37

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.