San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 5, 2024
• Venue: Chase Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Matt Waldron - Padres
  • Ryne Nelson - D-Backs

Betting Odds

San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Preview

On May 5, 2024, the Arizona Diamondbacks will host the San Diego Padres at Chase Field in a National League West matchup. The Diamondbacks, with a record of 14-20, are having a tough season, while the Padres, with a record of 18-18, are performing at an average level.

The Diamondbacks are projected to start right-handed pitcher Ryne Nelson, who has had a mixed performance this season. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Nelson is ranked as the #224 best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating that he is one of the worst in the league. However, his peripheral indicators, such as his expected ERA and fielding independent pitching, suggest that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better in the future.

The Padres are projected to start right-handed pitcher Matt Waldron, who is considered one of the worst pitchers in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Waldron has a low strikeout rate, and he will face a Diamondbacks offense that ranks third in the league for the fewest strikeouts. This may give the Diamondbacks an advantage, as Waldron may struggle to capitalize on his biggest strength.

In terms of offensive rankings, the Diamondbacks rank 11th in MLB this season, with an average team batting average and home runs. However, they excel in stolen bases, ranking third in the league. On the other hand, the Padres rank 9th in MLB, with a good overall offensive performance, but a lower team batting average. They also boast a solid ranking in home runs and stolen bases, ranking 10th and 7th, respectively.

When it comes to bullpens, the Diamondbacks have the 26th-ranked bullpen in MLB, while the Padres have the 8th-ranked bullpen, indicating a significant advantage for the Padres in relief pitching.

Based on the current odds, the Diamondbacks have a higher projected win probability, with a team total of 4.86 runs, compared to the Padres' team total of 4.64 runs. However, the betting markets expect a close game, with the Diamondbacks favored at -120 and the Padres at +100.

Overall, this game presents an interesting matchup between the struggling Diamondbacks and the average-performing Padres. With Ryne Nelson taking the mound for the Diamondbacks and Matt Waldron for the Padres, both teams have an opportunity to capitalize on their opponent's weaknesses. It will be a game to watch as these division rivals battle it out on the field.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Matt Waldron must realize this, because he has relied on his non-fastballs a lot this year: 62.9% of the time, placing in the 86th percentile.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Jackson Merrill has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his wOBA this year; his .294 rate is quite a bit lower than his .402 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

Fernando Tatis Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 95th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game's 3rd-deepest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Ryne Nelson's 94.6-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 80th percentile out of all starters.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Corbin Carroll has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (72% of the time), but he is projected to hit 8th in the lineup in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Positioned 3rd-least steep in MLB since the start of last season, Arizona Diamondbacks bats as a unit have compiled a 10.7° launch angle (an advanced metric to study the ability to lift the ball for power).

• A low launch angle generally means the hitter struggles to lift the ball into the air, which is a key component for power and home runs.

Game Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 75 of their last 139 games (+13.80 Units / 9% ROI)
• The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 11 games (+8.95 Units / 72% ROI)
• Manny Machado has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 12 away games (+8.80 Units / 73% ROI)

San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks Prediction

Final Score: San Diego Padres 5.24 vs Arizona Diamondbacks 5.19

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