San Francisco Giants vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 5, 2024
• Venue: Citizens Bank Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Logan Webb - Giants
  • Taijuan Walker - Phillies

Betting Odds

San Francisco Giants vs Philadelphia Phillies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

San Francisco Giants vs Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview

In a National League matchup, the Philadelphia Phillies will face off against the San Francisco Giants on May 5, 2024, at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies, with an impressive season record of 23-11, are having a great year, while the Giants are struggling with a record of 15-19.

On the mound, the Phillies are projected to start right-handed pitcher Taijuan Walker, who has started one game this year and holds a 1-0 record. Despite his high ERA of 8.53, Walker's 5.02 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward. On the other hand, the Giants will rely on their elite right-handed pitcher Logan Webb, who boasts a 3-2 record with a stellar 2.98 ERA. However, his 4.44 xERA indicates that he may have been fortunate and could regress in future performances.

Walker, though a low-strikeout pitcher, may have an advantage in this matchup against the Giants' high-strikeout offense, as they rank fourth in strikeouts in MLB. The Phillies' bullpen is considered the third best in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the Giants' bullpen ranks second, making it a potentially close game.

Offensively, the Phillies have been impressive this season, ranking as the sixth-best team in MLB. They excel in team batting average, ranking eighth, and stolen bases, ranking tenth. In contrast, the Giants' offense is struggling, ranking 21st overall and 29th in stolen bases.

Based on the current odds, the Phillies have an implied win probability of 48%, while the Giants have an implied win probability of 52%. The game total is set at 7.5 runs, indicating a low-scoring game.

With the Phillies' strong offense and quality bullpen, and the Giants' struggling offense, this game may lean towards the Phillies, despite the slight advantage given to the Giants based on implied win probability. It will be an intriguing matchup between the Phillies' great season and the Giants' challenging year thus far.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

Logan Webb has been granted a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, recording 6.3 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than the average starting pitcher.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Jorge Soler's footspeed has declined this year. His 26.58 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 25.71 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

The San Francisco Giants bullpen grades out as the 2nd-best in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Taijuan Walker's cutter utilization has jumped by 16.9% from last season to this one (17.5% to 34.4%) .

• Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Extreme groundball bats like Johan Rojas are generally less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Logan Webb.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Brandon Marsh has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.5%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of MLB's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 71 of their last 116 games (+11.30 Units / 7% ROI)
• The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 70 of their last 111 games (+25.07 Units / 19% ROI)
• Jorge Soler has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 26 games (+9.55 Units / 26% ROI)

San Francisco Giants vs Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

Final Score: San Francisco Giants 4.45 vs Philadelphia Phillies 3.75

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.