Toronto Blue Jays vs Washington Nationals Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 3, 2024
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Yusei Kikuchi - Blue Jays
  • Patrick Corbin - Nationals

Betting Odds

Toronto Blue Jays vs Washington Nationals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Washington Nationals Betting Preview

In a highly-anticipated Interleague matchup, the Washington Nationals will face the Toronto Blue Jays on May 3, 2024, at Nationals Park. The Nationals, with a below-average record of 15-16, will look to turn their season around against the Blue Jays, who also have a below-average record of 15-17.

On the mound, the Nationals are projected to start left-handed pitcher Patrick Corbin, while the Blue Jays will counter with left-handed pitcher Yusei Kikuchi. Corbin, although struggling this season, ranks in the lower tier of starting pitchers according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. In contrast, Kikuchi is considered above average among MLB pitchers.

Corbin has had a tough start to the season, with a win-loss record of 0-3 and an ERA of 6.82, indicating his struggles on the mound. However, his xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky this year and may perform better going forward. On the other hand, Kikuchi has been more successful, boasting a win-loss record of 2-2 and an impressive ERA of 2.94.

Looking at the team offenses, the Nationals rank 19th in MLB, while the Blue Jays rank 18th. However, the Nationals have been more successful in terms of team batting average, ranking 6th in the league, while the Blue Jays excel in this category, ranking 5th. In terms of power, both teams have struggled, with the Nationals ranking 29th in team home runs and the Blue Jays ranking 15th.

In terms of pitching, the Nationals bullpen is considered the worst in the league according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the Blue Jays bullpen ranks average. This could give the Blue Jays an advantage if they can maintain a lead late in the game.

Based on the current betting odds, the Blue Jays are heavily favored to win this game, with an implied win probability of 62%, while the Nationals are considered underdogs with a 38% win probability. The game total is set at 9.0 runs, suggesting a potentially high-scoring matchup.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

With 7 batters who hit from the other side in the opposing team's projected batting order, Yusei Kikuchi will have a disadvantage while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, George Springer has had bad variance on his side this year. His .279 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .405.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

Bo Bichette has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (43.2%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of baseball's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Ildemaro Vargas is penciled in 5th in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 80% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Riley Adams (the Nationals's expected catcher in today's matchup) grades out as a horrible pitch framer.

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 76 games (+15.95 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 69 of their last 125 games (+8.29 Units / 6% ROI)
• Jacob Young has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.75 Units / 41% ROI)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 5.33 vs Washington Nationals 3.82

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.