Colorado Rockies vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 3, 2024
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cal Quantrill - Rockies
  • Martin Perez - Pirates

Betting Odds

Colorado Rockies vs Pittsburgh Pirates Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Colorado Rockies vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

In a highly anticipated National League matchup, the Pittsburgh Pirates are set to face off against the Colorado Rockies at PNC Park on May 3, 2024. The Pirates, who hold a home-field advantage, are looking to improve their season record of 14-18, while the struggling Rockies aim to turn their luck around with a record of 7-24.

Taking the mound for the Pirates is left-handed pitcher Martin Perez. Although Perez has shown promise with an impressive ERA of 2.86 this season, advanced-stat Power Rankings place him at the #170 spot among MLB starting pitchers. This suggests that Perez may face challenges going forward, especially against a Rockies offense that ranks as one of the worst in the league.

On the other side, the Rockies will rely on right-handed pitcher Cal Quantrill. Quantrill has had a tough season so far, with an ERA of 5.34. According to advanced-stat Power Rankings, Quantrill is considered one of the worst pitchers in MLB. However, his 4.11 xERA indicates that he may have been unlucky and could potentially perform better moving forward.

Both teams have struggled offensively this season. The Pirates rank as the 25th best offense in MLB, while the Rockies sit at 22nd. The Pirates have shown some strength in stolen bases, ranking 12th in the league, but their overall offensive performance has been lacking. The Rockies, on the other hand, have struggled in multiple offensive categories, including team batting average and stolen bases, ranking 18th and 30th, respectively.

In terms of bullpens, the Pirates have an advantage with their bullpen ranking as the 6th best in MLB, according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. The Rockies' bullpen, while average, sits at the 14th spot.

With the Pirates being the betting favorites, the odds indicate a high implied team total of 4.57 runs for them, while the Rockies have a low implied team total of 3.43 runs. This suggests that the Pirates are expected to have the upper hand in this game.

As the game approaches, all eyes will be on the Pirates' offense to see if they can capitalize on the Rockies' struggling pitching and improve their season record. Meanwhile, the Rockies will look to find their rhythm at the plate and turn the tide in what has been a challenging season for them.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

As it relates to his strikeout talent, the leading projection system (THE BAT) puts Cal Quantrill in the 3rd percentile among all starting pitchers in the game.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

In today's matchup, Ryan McMahon is at a disadvantage facing the league's 9th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 38.7% rate (96th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Jack Suwinski is projected to bat 8th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 74% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have 3 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Oneil Cruz, Jack Suwinski, Henry Davis).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Moneyline in 35 of their last 67 games (+15.85 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 16 of their last 32 away games (+14.93 Units / 47% ROI)
• Elehuris Montero has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 21 games (+10.50 Units / 28% ROI)

Colorado Rockies vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Final Score: Colorado Rockies 3.94 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 4.88

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