Miami Marlins vs Oakland Athletics Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 3, 2024
• Venue: Oakland Coliseum
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ryan Weathers - Marlins
  • JP Sears - Athletics

Betting Odds

Miami Marlins vs Oakland Athletics Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Miami Marlins vs Oakland Athletics Betting Preview

In an Interleague matchup, the Miami Marlins will be taking on the Oakland Athletics at Oakland Coliseum on May 3, 2024. The Athletics, who are currently having a below-average season with a record of 15-17, will be the home team, while the Marlins, who are struggling with a terrible season and a record of 9-24, will be the away team.

The Athletics are projected to start left-handed pitcher JP Sears, who has a record of 1-2 this year with an ERA of 4.64. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Sears is ranked as the #195 best starting pitcher in MLB. While he may not be among the best, he is expected to pitch an average of 5.6 innings and allow 2.4 earned runs per game.

On the other side, the Marlins will be starting left-handed pitcher Ryan Weathers, who has a record of 2-2 this year with an ERA of 4.55. Our advanced-stat Power Rankings consider Weathers one of the worst pitchers in MLB. However, he is projected to pitch an average of 5.3 innings and allow 2.6 earned runs per game.

The Athletics offense has been struggling this season, ranking as the 28th best in MLB. They have the third-lowest team batting average and the fifth-best team stolen bases. Meanwhile, the Marlins offense ranks as the 29th best in MLB, with the third-best team batting average but the second-lowest team home runs and stolen bases.

Based on the current odds, the Athletics are the betting favorites with a moneyline of -140, giving them an implied win probability of 56%. The Marlins, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +115 and an implied win probability of 44%.

With the Athletics having a higher projected win probability than their implied win probability, they seem to have an advantage in this matchup. However, baseball is a game of surprises, and anything can happen on any given day. Stay tuned for an exciting game between the Marlins and the Athletics.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Throwing 91.9 adjusted pitches per GS this year on average, Ryan Weathers ranks in the 78th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Extreme flyball batters like Josh Bell generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like JP Sears.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

It may be smart to expect better numbers for the Miami Marlins offense in the future, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the unluckiest offense in baseball this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

Due to his large platoon split, JP Sears will have a disadvantage matching up with 7 batters in the projected batting order of the opposite hand in today's outing.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

J.J. Bleday has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (78% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in today's game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Oakland Athletics bullpen grades out as the 5th-worst in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Team Total Under in 72 of their last 125 games (+12.28 Units / 8% ROI)
• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 35 away games (+11.00 Units / 29% ROI)
• Tyler Nevin has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 14 games (+9.20 Units / 48% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs Oakland Athletics Prediction

Final Score: Miami Marlins 4.02 vs Oakland Athletics 4.12

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.