Boston Red Sox vs Minnesota Twins Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 3, 2024
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tanner Houck - Red Sox
  • Chris Paddack - Twins

Betting Odds

Boston Red Sox vs Minnesota Twins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Boston Red Sox vs Minnesota Twins Betting Preview

On May 3, 2024, the Minnesota Twins will face off against the Boston Red Sox at Target Field. The Twins, with a season record of 17-13, are having a good season so far. However, the Red Sox have been equally impressive with an 18-14 record. This American League matchup is the first game in the series between these two teams.

The Twins are projected to start right-handed pitcher Chris Paddack, who has had a mixed performance this season. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Paddack is ranked as the #145 best starting pitcher in MLB, which is below average. He has started five games this year and holds a 2-1 win/loss record. Paddack's ERA of 5.88 is considered horrible, but his 4.25 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward.

On the other hand, the Red Sox are projected to start right-handed pitcher Tanner Houck, who has been exceptional this season. Houck is ranked as the #24 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our Power Rankings. He has started six games and holds a 3-2 win/loss record with an impressive ERA of 1.60. However, his 2.62 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky and could potentially perform worse in the future.

The Twins' offense has been solid this season, ranking as the #10 best in MLB. However, their team batting average ranks #22, indicating room for improvement. The Twins have displayed power, ranking #7 in team home runs, but their stolen bases rank #24, which is considered a weak point.

On the other hand, the Red Sox's offense has been outstanding, ranking as the #5 best in MLB. They excel in team batting average, ranking #3, but their team home run and stolen base rankings are average (#18 and #16, respectively).

In terms of the pitching matchups, Houck's high-strikeout ability may give him an advantage against the Twins' offense, which leads MLB in strikeouts. However, Paddack's unlucky performance so far suggests that he may bounce back in this game.

According to the current odds, both teams are evenly matched, with a moneyline set at -110 for each team. The implied win probability is 50% for both the Twins and the Red Sox. The game total is set at 8.0 runs, which is average.

While the Red Sox have the edge in pitching and offense, the Twins have the advantage of playing at home. With both teams having a good season, this is expected to be a closely contested game.

The Twins will rely on their best hitters, while the Red Sox will look to their own offensive stars to make an impact. It will be interesting to see how the game unfolds and which team comes out on top.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Garrett Cooper is in the 98th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in base hits (50.7% rate since the start of last season).

• Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.

The Boston Red Sox have 4 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Tyler O'Neill, Garrett Cooper, David Hamilton, Connor Wong).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Chris Paddack projects for 1.1 walks in this matchup, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

This year, there has been a decline in Carlos Santana's footspeed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 25.9 ft/sec last year to 25.41 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Minnesota Twins' bullpen projects as the 6th-worst among all the teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 50 of their last 86 games (+12.50 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 10 away games (+5.80 Units / 52% ROI)
• Willi Castro has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 14 games (+11.05 Units / 43% ROI)

Boston Red Sox vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 4.47 vs Minnesota Twins 4.05

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