Atlanta Braves vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 3, 2024
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Charlie Morton - Braves
  • Gavin Stone - Dodgers

Betting Odds

Atlanta Braves vs Los Angeles Dodgers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Atlanta Braves vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview

The Los Angeles Dodgers are set to host the Atlanta Braves in an exciting National League matchup on May 3, 2024, at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers, with a season record of 20-13, are having a great season, while the Braves boast an impressive 20-9 record. Both teams have been performing at a high level, making this game an intriguing showdown.

On the mound, the Dodgers are projected to start right-handed pitcher Gavin Stone, who has had an average season so far. Stone has started five games this year, with a win/loss record of 2-1 and an ERA of 4.68. However, his peripheral indicators, such as his 4.11 xERA and 3.68 FIP, suggest that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward.

Opposing Stone will be Charlie Morton, the Braves' right-handed pitcher. Morton has also started five games this season, with a perfect 2-0 record and an impressive 3.60 ERA. He is considered an average pitcher according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings.

In terms of offense, the Dodgers have the top-ranked offense in MLB this season. They excel in home runs, ranking second in the league, but their stolen base ranking is lower at 20th. On the other hand, the Braves have the second-best offense in MLB, leading the league in batting average and home runs. They also have a good ranking in stolen bases, sitting at seventh.

Looking at the betting odds, the Dodgers are favored with a moneyline of -120, implying a 52% win probability. The Braves have a moneyline of +100, giving them a 48% win probability. The game total is set at 9.0 runs, indicating an expectation of a high-scoring game.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Charlie Morton in the 89th percentile when estimating his strikeout skill.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

As it relates to his home runs, Marcell Ozuna has had some very good luck since the start of last season. His 41.3 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been considerably higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 32.5.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Jarred Kelenic hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (42% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 9th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Max Muncy's 22.2° launch angle (a reliable standard to study a batter's ability to lift the ball for power) is among the most flyball-inducing in baseball: 100th percentile.

• A high launch angle generally means the hitter can lift the ball into the air well, which is a key component for power and home runs.

The Los Angeles Dodgers have 3 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Max Muncy, James Outman, Teoscar Hernandez).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Run Line in 72 of their last 128 games (+16.60 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 42 of their last 66 games (+15.35 Units / 21% ROI)
• Mookie Betts has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 21 games (+10.25 Units / 30% ROI)

Atlanta Braves vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Final Score: Atlanta Braves 5.11 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 5.21

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.