Los Angeles Angels vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 3, 2024
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jose Soriano - Angels
  • Tanner Bibee - Guardians

Betting Odds

Los Angeles Angels vs Cleveland Guardians Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Angels vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

The Cleveland Guardians are set to host the Los Angeles Angels on May 3, 2024, at Progressive Field in an American League matchup. The Guardians have been having an exceptional season with a record of 20-11, while the Angels have struggled with a record of 11-20.

The Guardians are projected to start right-handed pitcher Tanner Bibee, who has been performing well this season. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Bibee is ranked as the 43rd best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers, indicating his skill and effectiveness on the mound. He has started six games this year and holds a perfect 2-0 win/loss record. With an ERA of 3.45, Bibee has been a reliable asset for the Guardians, although his xERA suggests that he may experience some regression in the future.

On the other side, the Angels are projected to start right-handed pitcher Jose Soriano. Our Power Rankings rank Soriano as the 82nd best starting pitcher in MLB. He has struggled this season, with a win/loss record of 0-4 and an ERA of 4.76. Similar to Bibee, Soriano's xERA indicates that he may face some challenges moving forward.

In terms of offense, the Guardians rank as the 12th best team in MLB this season, with an average ranking in team batting average. However, they have struggled in terms of hitting home runs, ranking as the worst team in the league in that category. On the other hand, the Angels have displayed power at the plate, ranking third in team home runs but have struggled in team stolen bases, ranking 27th.

When it comes to the bullpens, the Guardians rank 12th while the Angels rank 29th in our advanced-stat Power Rankings. This suggests that the Guardians have a slight advantage in terms of bullpen strength.

Based on the current odds, the Guardians are big betting favorites with a moneyline of -175 and an implied win probability of 62%. The Angels, on the other hand, are big underdogs with a moneyline of +155 and an implied win probability of 38%.

Taking into consideration the projections, the Guardians' strong record, and the Angels' struggles, the Guardians appear to have the advantage in this matchup. However, it's important to remember that anything can happen in baseball, and the outcome of the game will ultimately depend on the performance of the players on the field.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Because flyball hitters hold a significant edge over groundball pitchers, Jose Soriano and his 48.8% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a hard position in today's outing going up against 1 opposing GB hitters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Mickey Moniak will probably have the upper hand against every reliever for the game's entirety, since the bullpen of the Cleveland Guardians has just 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Angels' bullpen grades out as the 2nd-worst out of all the teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

When it comes to his strikeout ability, the leading projection system (THE BAT) places Tanner Bibee in the 78th percentile among all SPs in the majors.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Batters such as Jose Ramirez with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Jose Soriano who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Jose Ramirez pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.4% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 6th-shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 66 games at home (+14.80 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 49 games (+9.49 Units / 17% ROI)
• Josh Naylor has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 16 games (+12.85 Units / 43% ROI)

Los Angeles Angels vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Angels 3.74 vs Cleveland Guardians 4.77

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