Baltimore Orioles vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 3, 2024
• Venue: Great American Ball Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cole Irvin - Orioles
  • Hunter Greene - Reds

Betting Odds

Baltimore Orioles vs Cincinnati Reds Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Baltimore Orioles vs Cincinnati Reds Betting Preview

The Cincinnati Reds will be hosting the Baltimore Orioles in an Interleague matchup on May 3, 2024, at Great American Ball Park. The Reds, with a season record of 16-15, are having an above-average season, while the Orioles boast an impressive record of 20-11, indicating a great season for them.

The Reds are projected to start right-handed pitcher Hunter Greene, who has had a solid season so far. Greene has started six games, with a win/loss record of 1-2 and an ERA of 3.63, which is considered good. However, his peripheral indicators, such as his xERA and FIP, suggest that he has been unlucky this year and is likely to perform even better going forward. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Greene is considered the 64th best starting pitcher in MLB, which is above average.

On the other side, the Orioles are projected to start left-handed pitcher Cole Irvin. Irvin has started five games this season, with a win/loss record of 2-1 and an impressive ERA of 3.49. However, his xFIP indicates that he may have been lucky and could potentially perform worse going forward. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Irvin is considered one of the worst pitchers in MLB.

In terms of offense, the Reds rank 21st in MLB, indicating a below-average performance. However, they rank 14th in both team batting average and home runs, suggesting an average level of talent in those areas. Notably, the Reds excel in stolen bases, ranking first in MLB. On the other hand, the Orioles have a strong offense, ranking 7th in MLB. They also have an average ranking in team batting average and home runs.

When it comes to the bullpen, the Reds rank 23rd in MLB, indicating a below-average performance, while the Orioles have the 8th best bullpen in MLB, suggesting a strong performance from their relievers.

Based on the current odds, the Reds have an implied win probability of 48%, while the Orioles have an implied win probability of 52%. The game total for this matchup is set at 9.0 runs, indicating a high-scoring game is expected.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Throwing 82.8 adjusted pitches per game per started this year on average, Cole Irvin places him the 20th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Cedric Mullins II ranks in the 99th percentile with a 21.7° launch angle, which is among the most flyball-inducing angles in the game.

• A high launch angle generally means the hitter can lift the ball into the air well, which is a key component for power and home runs.

Anthony Santander pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.5% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 8th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

The Baltimore Orioles have 6 batters in the projected lineup that will have the handedness advantage against Hunter Greene in this matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Elly De La Cruz's footspeed has fallen off this year. His 30.53 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 29.82 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Compared to their .317 overall projected rate, the .306 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Cincinnati Reds projected lineup today suggests this version of the lineup considerably missing some of their usual firepower.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 62 of their last 114 games (+14.80 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Moneyline in 76 of their last 127 games (+21.95 Units / 13% ROI)
• Adley Rutschman has hit the Singles Over in 21 of his last 30 games (+9.75 Units / 25% ROI)

Baltimore Orioles vs Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Final Score: Baltimore Orioles 5.25 vs Cincinnati Reds 4.73

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