Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago White Sox Prediction For 5/29/2024

Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto Blue Jays

May 29, 2024

Chicago White Sox

Chicago White Sox
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago White Sox Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

  • Date: May 29, 2024
  • Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Alek Manoah - Blue Jays
    • Chris Flexen - White Sox

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Blue Jays -170, White Sox 145
Runline: Blue Jays -1.5 -110, White Sox 1.5 -110
Over/Under Total: 8.5 -105

Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago White Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
Toronto Blue Jays - 61% Toronto Blue Jays - 64.39%
Chicago White Sox - 39% Chicago White Sox - 35.61%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago White Sox Betting Preview

In a matchup scheduled for May 29, 2024, the Chicago White Sox will play host to the Toronto Blue Jays at Guaranteed Rate Field. This American League showdown features two teams having different levels of success this season. The White Sox, with an abysmal record of 15-41, are enduring a terrible season, while the Blue Jays, with a record of 25-29, are having a below-average season.

On the mound, the White Sox are projected to start right-handed pitcher Chris Flexen, who has struggled this year. Flexen has started 9 games, with a win/loss record of 2-4 and an ERA of 5.69, which is considered horrible. However, his advanced-stat Power Rankings suggest that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward.

Opposing Flexen will be the Blue Jays' right-handed pitcher Alek Manoah. With a record of 1-2 and an ERA of 3.97, Manoah has been a below-average pitcher this season. However, his advanced-stat Power Rankings indicate that he has been lucky and may face challenges in his performance going forward.

This game marks the third matchup in the series between these two teams. In their last game, the Blue Jays emerged victorious with a score of 7-2. The Blue Jays were the favorites to win, with a closing Moneyline price of -225 and an implied win probability of 66%. The White Sox, on the other hand, were big underdogs, with a closing Moneyline price of +185 and an implied win probability of 34%.

The White Sox offense has struggled this season, ranking as the worst in MLB. They rank 22nd in team batting average, home runs, and stolen bases. In contrast, the Blue Jays offense ranks as the 16th best in MLB, with a strong team batting average ranking of 5th.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Blue Jays are projected as the favorites to win this game, with a win probability of 64%. The White Sox, on the other hand, have a projected win probability of 36%. The current betting odds also favor the Blue Jays, with a moneyline of -170 and an implied win probability of 61%, while the White Sox have a moneyline of +150 and an implied win probability of 39%.

Based on the projections, the Blue Jays are expected to score an average of 5.31 runs in this game, while the White Sox are projected to score 3.67 runs. The Game Total for this matchup is set at 8.5 runs.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

As forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Alek Manoah is expected to tally an average of 16.9 outs in this game.

  • THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Because of his large reverse platoon split, Chris Flexen will have a tough matchup facing 7 bats in the projected batting order who share his hand in today's game.

  • A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform worse against same-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be worse against a right-handed hitter). Losing this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Paul DeJong is an extreme flyball hitter and matches up with the strong outfield defense of Toronto (#3-best of the day).

  • This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Paul DeJong pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.3% — 89th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 5th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

  • This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

  • The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 5 of their last 9 games (+1.50 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 31 games (+5.95 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Paul DeJong has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 19 games (+8.80 Units / 46% ROI)

Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago White Sox Prediction

Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 5.31 vs Chicago White Sox 3.67

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

-202
85% TOR
+172
15% CHW

Total Pick Consensus

8.0/-102
40% UN
8.0/-118
60% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

-1.5/-118
89% TOR
+1.5/-102
11% CHW

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
TOR
Team Stats
CHW
3.68
ERA
4.60
.238
Batting Avg Against
.242
1.24
WHIP
1.38
.294
BABIP
.295
8.0%
BB%
10.2%
25.1%
K%
24.3%
76.4%
LOB%
72.5%
.260
Batting Avg
.238
.415
SLG
.386
.746
OPS
.681
.331
OBP
.295
TOR
Team Records
CHW
21-24
Home
17-33
22-28
Road
10-37
36-41
vRHP
20-56
7-11
vLHP
7-14
25-38
vs>.500
16-47
18-14
vs<.500
11-23
4-6
Last10
3-7
8-12
Last20
7-13
11-19
Last30
10-20
A. Manoah
C. Flexen
87.1
Innings
N/A
19
GS
N/A
3-9
W-L
N/A
5.87
ERA
N/A
8.14
K/9
N/A
6.08
BB/9
N/A
1.55
HR/9
N/A
71.4%
LOB%
N/A
13.8%
HR/FB%
N/A
6.03
FIP
N/A
5.84
xFIP
N/A
.268
AVG
N/A
19.0%
K%
N/A
14.2%
BB%
N/A
5.64
SIERA
N/A

A. Manoah

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
5/3 NYY
Taillon N/A
L1-9 N/A
6
3
1
1
7
1
55-91
4/28 BOS
Whitlock N/A
W1-0 N/A
7
3
0
0
7
1
63-92
4/23 HOU
Urquidy N/A
W3-2 N/A
6
7
2
2
5
0
70-95
4/17 OAK
Oller N/A
W4-3 N/A
6
4
2
2
6
2
55-84
4/11 NYY
Taillon N/A
W3-0 N/A
6
1
0
0
7
4
52-89

C. Flexen

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
5/3 HOU
Javier N/A
L0-4 N/A
5
2
1
1
2
3
49-84
4/28 TB
Springs N/A
L1-2 N/A
6.2
6
2
2
4
2
58-96
4/22 KC
Keller N/A
W4-1 N/A
7
6
1
1
5
0
56-84
4/16 HOU
Verlander N/A
L0-4 N/A
6
5
3
3
3
1
47-72
4/11 MIN
Bundy N/A
L0-4 N/A
4.1
5
3
3
3
3
57-91

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
TOR CHW
TOR CHW
Consensus
-170
+150
-202
+172
-170
+142
-205
+170
-188
+158
-198
+166
-180
+150
-200
+170
-170
+143
-210
+175
-175
+145
-210
+170
Open
Current
Book
TOR CHW
TOR CHW
Consensus
-1.5 (-123)
+1.5 (-110)
-1.5 (-123)
+1.5 (+101)
-1.5 (-122)
+1.5 (-118)
-1.5 (-122)
+1.5 (+102)
-1.5 (-114)
+1.5 (-102)
-1.5 (-114)
+1.5 (-105)
-1.5 (-121)
+1.5 (-117)
-1.5 (-121)
+1.5 (+100)
-1.5 (-130)
+1.5 (-115)
-1.5 (-130)
+1.5 (+110)
-1.5 (-125)
+1.5 (-115)
-1.5 (-125)
+1.5 (+105)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
8.5 (-110)
8.5 (-110)
8.0 (-115)
8.0 (-106)
8.5 (-110)
8.5 (-110)
8.0 (-118)
8.0 (-102)
8.5 (-110)
8.5 (-110)
8.0 (-110)
8.0 (-110)
8.5 (-108)
8.5 (-112)
8.0 (-117)
8.0 (-104)
8.5 (-110)
8.5 (-110)
8.5 (+100)
8.5 (-120)
8.5 (-110)
8.5 (-110)
8.5 (-105)
8.5 (-115)