Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 5/29/2024

Houston Astros

Houston Astros

May 29, 2024

Seattle Mariners

Seattle Mariners
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

  • Date: May 29, 2024
  • Venue: T-Mobile Park
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Justin Verlander - Astros
    • George Kirby - Mariners

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Astros -110, Mariners -110
Runline: Astros -1.5 160, Mariners 1.5 -185
Over/Under Total: 7 -110

Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
Houston Astros - 50% Houston Astros - 48.77%
Seattle Mariners - 50% Seattle Mariners - 51.23%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners Betting Preview

In a highly anticipated American League West matchup, the Seattle Mariners are set to take on the Houston Astros on May 29, 2024, at T-Mobile Park. As the home team, the Mariners will have the advantage of playing in front of their fans.

The Mariners have been having an above-average season so far, with a record of 30-26. On the other hand, the Astros have been struggling, with a record of 24-31, indicating a bad season for them.

The Mariners are projected to start the talented right-handed pitcher, George Kirby, while the Astros will counter with the experienced Justin Verlander, also a right-handed pitcher. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Kirby is ranked as the 29th best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers, making him a great asset for the Mariners. Verlander, on the other hand, is ranked 67th, which is still considered above average.

Kirby has started 11 games this season, with a win/loss record of 4-5. His ERA stands at 4.33, which is average, but his 3.59 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward. Verlander, with 7 starts this year, holds a win/loss record of 3-2 and an ERA of 3.60, which is good. However, his 4.81 xFIP indicates that he has been lucky and may not perform as well in the future.

In terms of offense, the Mariners rank as the 24th best team in MLB this season, which is considered a bad ranking. They are particularly struggling in team batting average, where they rank 24th, and in stolen bases, where they rank 18th. However, they have shown some power, ranking 13th in team home runs.

In contrast, the Astros have one of the best offenses in MLB, ranking 5th overall. They have been consistent in team batting average, ranking 14th, and have shown power, ranking 9th in team home runs. Their stolen base ranking is average, at 12th.

With a low Game Total of 7.0 runs, this game is expected to be a close one. Both teams have low implied team totals of 3.50 runs. THE BAT X projects the Mariners to score an average of 3.64 runs, while the Astros are projected to score 3.76 runs.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Justin Verlander has been granted more leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying 4.8 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than the average pitcher.

  • Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

When it comes to his batting average ability, Yordan Alvarez is projected as the 5th-best hitter in the league by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

  • THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

The 2nd-best projected batting order of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall hitting skill is that of the the Houston Astros.

  • A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Mitch Haniger has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (81% of the time), but he is projected to hit 8th in the batting order in this game.

  • The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Seattle Mariners' bullpen ranks as the 7th-worst among all the teams in Major League Baseball.

  • Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the Run Line in 14 of their last 20 games at home (+12.40 Units / 54% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 40 games (+6.50 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Luke Raley has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games at home (+7.90 Units / 198% ROI)

Houston Astros vs Seattle Mariners Prediction

Final Score: Houston Astros 3.76 vs Seattle Mariners 3.64

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

-110
31% HOU
-108
69% SEA

Total Pick Consensus

7.0/-102
8% UN
7.0/-118
92% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

-1.5/+160
58% HOU
+1.5/-192
42% SEA

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
HOU
Team Stats
SEA
3.79
ERA
3.72
.237
Batting Avg Against
.233
1.26
WHIP
1.18
.289
BABIP
.287
8.7%
BB%
7.0%
24.0%
K%
24.6%
75.3%
LOB%
72.3%
.251
Batting Avg
.237
.417
SLG
.403
.740
OPS
.719
.324
OBP
.315
HOU
Team Records
SEA
28-21
Home
31-20
24-26
Road
22-28
39-32
vRHP
39-36
13-15
vLHP
14-12
18-26
vs>.500
27-30
34-21
vs<.500
26-18
6-4
Last10
4-6
13-7
Last20
8-12
21-9
Last30
13-17
J. Verlander
G. Kirby
175.0
Innings
144.2
28
GS
23
18-4
W-L
10-8
1.75
ERA
3.11
9.51
K/9
8.15
1.49
BB/9
0.87
0.62
HR/9
0.93
80.5%
LOB%
75.8%
6.2%
HR/FB%
9.7%
2.49
FIP
3.18
3.23
xFIP
3.57
.184
AVG
.238
27.8%
K%
23.0%
4.4%
BB%
2.5%
3.09
SIERA
3.65

J. Verlander

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
5/4 SEA
Brash N/A
W7-2 N/A
6.2
5
2
2
3
0
73-101
4/28 TEX
Perez N/A
W3-2 N/A
7
4
1
1
8
0
64-91
4/22 TOR
Stripling N/A
L3-4 N/A
6
4
3
3
5
1
65-85
4/16 SEA
Flexen N/A
W4-0 N/A
8
3
0
0
8
0
64-87
4/9 LAA
Syndergaard N/A
L0-2 N/A
5
3
1
1
7
3
47-80

G. Kirby

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
HOU SEA
HOU SEA
Consensus
-102
-116
-110
-108
-102
-118
-112
-108
-104
-112
-108
-108
-103
-115
-109
-108
+100
-120
-110
-110
-105
-115
-105
-115
Open
Current
Book
HOU SEA
HOU SEA
Consensus
-1.5 (+169)
+1.5 (-210)
-1.5 (+157)
+1.5 (-198)
-1.5 (+164)
+1.5 (-198)
-1.5 (+154)
+1.5 (-185)
-1.5 (+162)
+1.5 (-196)
-1.5 (+150)
+1.5 (-182)
-1.5 (+170)
+1.5 (-225)
-1.5 (+160)
+1.5 (-200)
+1.5 (-225)
-1.5 (+180)
+1.5 (-225)
-1.5 (+185)
-1.5 (+170)
+1.5 (-210)
-1.5 (+165)
+1.5 (-200)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
7.0 (-115)
7.0 (-105)
7.0 (-115)
7.0 (-105)
7.0 (-115)
7.0 (-105)
7.0 (-115)
7.0 (-105)
7.0 (-115)
7.0 (-105)
7.0 (-112)
7.0 (-108)
7.0 (-115)
7.0 (-105)
7.0 (-117)
7.0 (-104)
7.0 (-115)
7.0 (-105)
7.0 (-120)
7.0 (+100)
7.0 (-115)
7.0 (-105)
7.0 (-120)
7.0 (+100)