Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres Prediction & Picks 5/29/2024

Miami Marlins

Miami Marlins

May 29, 2024

San Diego Padres

San Diego Padres
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

  • Date: May 29, 2024
  • Venue: Petco Park
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Braxton Garrett - Marlins
    • Yu Darvish - Padres

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Marlins 150, Padres -175
Runline: Marlins 1.5 -145, Padres -1.5 125
Over/Under Total: 7.5 100

Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
Miami Marlins - 39% Miami Marlins - 41.31%
San Diego Padres - 61% San Diego Padres - 58.69%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres Betting Preview

In an exciting National League matchup, the San Diego Padres will take on the Miami Marlins at Petco Park on May 29, 2024. The Padres, with a season record of 30-28, are having an above-average season and will be looking to continue their winning streak. Meanwhile, the Marlins are struggling with a record of 19-37 and are having a challenging season.

The Padres, serving as the home team, will have the advantage of playing on familiar turf at Petco Park. They are projected to start the talented right-handed pitcher Yu Darvish, who has been a key asset for the team this season. Darvish has started 10 games in the current season, boasting a win-loss record of 4-2 and an impressive ERA of 3.04. However, his 3.65 xFIP suggests that he may have been fortunate so far and could face challenges going forward.

On the other side, the Marlins will send left-handed pitcher Braxton Garrett to the mound. Garrett, with a win-loss record of 1-0 and an ERA of 5.30, is projected to improve in future performances based on his lower xFIP of 2.89. Facing the Padres' offense, which ranks 10th in MLB, Garrett's control issues may pose a challenge as the Padres have the second-most walks in the league.

The Padres' offense, led by their best hitter Donovan Solano, has been performing well over the past week. Solano has recorded 5 hits, including 1 home run, and holds an impressive batting average of .500, contributing to the team's success. In contrast, the Marlins' best hitter, Jazz Chisholm, has also been productive with 7 hits, 2 home runs, and 1 stolen base over the same period.

According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, the Padres have a stronger bullpen, ranking 9th in MLB, compared to the Marlins' bullpen, which ranks 26th. This could give the Padres an additional advantage in the game.

The Padres enter the game as the betting favorites, with a projected win probability of 59% according to THE BAT X. The Marlins, as underdogs, have a projected win probability of 41%. Based on the current odds, the Padres have an implied team total of 4.19 runs, while the Marlins have a lower implied team total of 3.31 runs.

As the game unfolds, keep an eye on Yu Darvish's ability to generate flyballs against the Marlins' power-limited offense, which ranks 3rd in the league for the fewest home runs. Additionally, Braxton Garrett's control issues may present challenges against the patient Padres' lineup, which ranks 2nd in the league for the most walks.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

The San Diego Padres have 6 bats in the projected offense that will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Braxton Garrett in today's game.

  • Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

San Diego's #1-ranked outfield defense on the slate today poses a formidable challenge for Josh Bell, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

  • This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Nick Gordon hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.2% — 81st percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

  • This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

The San Diego Padres infield defense grades out as the strongest among all the teams playing today.

  • Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

As a switch-hitter who performs better from the 0 side of the dish, Jurickson Profar will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his good side against Braxton Garrett in today's game.

  • Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Projected catcher Luis Campusano projects as a horrible pitch framer, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

  • Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 17 games at home (+8.65 Units / 42% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 18 of their last 24 away games (+11.30 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Over in 37 of his last 50 games (+17.35 Units / 18% ROI)

Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Final Score: Miami Marlins 4.02 vs San Diego Padres 4.54

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

+154
12% MIA
-184
88% SD

Total Pick Consensus

7.0/-112
8% UN
7.0/-108
92% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

+1.5/-142
6% MIA
-1.5/+120
94% SD

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
MIA
Team Stats
SD
4.18
ERA
3.83
.242
Batting Avg Against
.237
1.28
WHIP
1.28
.302
BABIP
.289
8.3%
BB%
9.0%
25.2%
K%
23.5%
72.5%
LOB%
75.4%
.262
Batting Avg
.240
.402
SLG
.413
.719
OPS
.739
.317
OBP
.327
MIA
Team Records
SD
21-33
Home
26-28
15-32
Road
27-22
29-36
vRHP
37-33
7-29
vLHP
16-17
23-43
vs>.500
28-30
13-22
vs<.500
25-20
4-6
Last10
4-6
7-13
Last20
11-9
13-17
Last30
16-14
B. Garrett
Y. Darvish
122.0
Innings
127.1
23
GS
22
7-3
W-L
8-8
3.91
ERA
4.24
9.30
K/9
9.26
1.55
BB/9
2.90
1.11
HR/9
1.20
74.2%
LOB%
73.1%
15.8%
HR/FB%
13.6%
3.52
FIP
4.05
3.19
xFIP
3.93
.259
AVG
.246
24.9%
K%
24.7%
4.1%
BB%
7.7%
3.43
SIERA
4.04

B. Garrett

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
8/16 ATL
Toussaint N/A
L2-12 N/A
3
3
3
3
2
6
39-77
8/10 SD
Stammen N/A
L5-6 N/A
3.1
8
5
5
4
1
46-68
8/5 NYM
Hill N/A
W4-2 N/A
5
5
0
0
6
4
56-94
7/24 SD
Weathers N/A
W3-2 N/A
7
4
2
2
10
1
57-85
7/18 PHI
Wheeler N/A
L4-7 N/A
4.1
7
3
2
2
3
53-82

Y. Darvish

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
4/29 PIT
Thompson N/A
W7-3 N/A
6
8
3
3
5
1
63-98
4/23 LAD
Anderson N/A
W3-2 N/A
6
1
0
0
7
3
56-90
4/17 ATL
Elder N/A
W2-1 N/A
6.2
4
1
1
8
0
64-96
4/12 SF
Cobb N/A
L2-13 N/A
1.2
8
9
9
2
2
34-57
4/7 ARI
Bumgarner N/A
L2-4 N/A
6
0
0
0
3
4
51-92

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
MIA SD
MIA SD
Consensus
+150
-172
+154
-184
+142
-170
+154
-185
+140
-166
+154
-184
+148
-175
+155
-186
+143
-170
+158
-190
+145
-175
+150
-185
Open
Current
Book
MIA SD
MIA SD
Consensus
+1.5 (-147)
-1.5 (+132)
+1.5 (-147)
-1.5 (+122)
+1.5 (-142)
-1.5 (+130)
+1.5 (-142)
-1.5 (+120)
+1.5 (-146)
-1.5 (+134)
+1.5 (-146)
-1.5 (+122)
+1.5 (-155)
-1.5 (+125)
+1.5 (-155)
-1.5 (+128)
+1.5 (-145)
-1.5 (+122)
+1.5 (-145)
-1.5 (+122)
+1.5 (-145)
-1.5 (+125)
+1.5 (-145)
-1.5 (+120)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
7.5 (-102)
7.5 (-119)
7.0 (-113)
7.0 (-107)
7.5 (-102)
7.5 (-118)
7.0 (-110)
7.0 (-110)
7.5 (-105)
7.5 (-115)
7.0 (-112)
7.0 (-108)
7.5 (-107)
7.5 (-114)
7.0 (-118)
7.0 (-103)
7.5 (+100)
7.5 (-120)
7.0 (-110)
7.0 (-110)
7.5 (+100)
7.5 (-120)
7.0 (-110)
7.0 (-110)