Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 5/29/2024

Kansas City Royals

Kansas City Royals

May 29, 2024

Minnesota Twins

Minnesota Twins
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

  • Date: May 29, 2024
  • Venue: Target Field
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Seth Lugo - Royals
    • Bailey Ober - Twins

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Royals 110, Twins -130
Runline: Royals 1.5 -195, Twins -1.5 170
Over/Under Total: 7.5 -110

Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
Kansas City Royals - 46% Kansas City Royals - 38.86%
Minnesota Twins - 54% Minnesota Twins - 61.14%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins Betting Preview

In an exciting American League Central matchup, the Minnesota Twins will take on the Kansas City Royals on May 29, 2024, at Target Field. The Twins, with a record of 30-24, are having a good season, while the Royals are having a great season with a record of 34-22. Bailey Ober is projected to start for the Twins, while Seth Lugo is projected to start for the Royals. Both pitchers are right-handed.

Bailey Ober has been performing well this season, with a Win/Loss record of 5-2 and an ERA of 4.33. However, advanced-stat Power Rankings suggest that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward. On the other hand, Seth Lugo has been an average pitcher with an ERA of 1.74.

The Twins offense ranks as the 17th best in MLB overall, while the Royals offense ranks 8th. However, the Twins have an advantage in their bullpen, which is ranked 4th best in the league, while the Royals bullpen is ranked 25th.

Alex Kirilloff has been the Twins' best hitter over the last 7 games, recording 5 hits, 5 RBIs, and 2 home runs with a batting average of .357. On the other side, Garrett Hampson has been the Royals' best hitter in the last 7 games, with 7 hits and a batting average of .538.

Bailey Ober's high-flyball pitching style may work in his favor against the Royals' offense, which has a low home run count this season. However, the Royals have the advantage of being a low-walk team, which may pose a challenge for Ober's strike-heavy approach.

According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Twins are projected to be the favorite in this game with a win probability of 63%, contrary to the implied win probability of 55% assigned by the betting market. This suggests potential value in betting on the Twins.

With a game total set at 7.5 runs, it is expected to be a low-scoring affair. Based on current odds, the Twins have an average implied team total of 3.97 runs, while the Royals have a low implied team total of 3.53 runs.

In this exciting matchup, the Twins have the statistical advantage overall, but the Royals have been performing exceptionally well. It will be interesting to see how the game unfolds and whether the Twins can capitalize on their projected win probability.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Compared to the average hurler, Seth Lugo has been granted more leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying an additional 4.4 adjusted pitches each start.

  • Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Typically, batters like Salvador Perez who hit a lot of groundballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Bailey Ober.

  • This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

When assessing his strikeout talent, the leading projection system (THE BAT) puts Bailey Ober in the 86th percentile among all starters in baseball.

  • THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Byron Buxton is penciled in 6th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 94% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

  • The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Minnesota Twins' bullpen grades out as the 4th-best out of all teams in the majors.

  • Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

  • The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.24 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the Run Line in 35 of their last 53 games (+14.89 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Alex Kirilloff has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 7 games (+10.50 Units / 150% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Final Score: Kansas City Royals 3.85 vs Minnesota Twins 4.6

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

+111
25% KC
-130
75% MIN

Total Pick Consensus

7.5/-115
4% UN
7.5/-105
96% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

+1.5/-192
74% KC
-1.5/+160
26% MIN

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
KC
Team Stats
MIN
5.20
ERA
3.89
.260
Batting Avg Against
.235
1.41
WHIP
1.20
.304
BABIP
.293
9.1%
BB%
7.3%
20.4%
K%
25.8%
67.1%
LOB%
74.0%
.244
Batting Avg
.237
.394
SLG
.416
.695
OPS
.732
.301
OBP
.316
KC
Team Records
MIN
31-18
Home
27-18
21-26
Road
27-23
43-36
vRHP
38-32
9-8
vLHP
16-9
23-25
vs>.500
20-25
29-19
vs<.500
34-16
5-5
Last10
6-4
10-10
Last20
13-7
13-17
Last30
20-10
S. Lugo
B. Ober
N/A
Innings
113.2
N/A
GS
20
N/A
W-L
6-6
N/A
ERA
3.40
N/A
K/9
8.95
N/A
BB/9
1.74
N/A
HR/9
1.27
N/A
LOB%
78.9%
N/A
HR/FB%
10.2%
N/A
FIP
3.85
N/A
xFIP
4.28

S. Lugo

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
9/27 WSH
Voth 108
L5-15 9
1.1
5
6
6
1
2
24-38
9/22 TB
Snell -133
W5-2 7.5
6.1
4
2
1
7
1
66-95
9/17 PHI
Nola -110
W10-6 8
1.2
8
6
6
3
0
30-52
9/12 TOR
Ray 152
L2-3 9.5
5.1
7
3
3
5
1
60-91
9/5 PHI
Howard 143
W5-1 9
5
4
1
1
8
2
50-81

B. Ober

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
4/28 DET
Skubal N/A
W7-1 N/A
3.2
6
1
1
3
2
49-73
4/22 CHW
Kopech N/A
W2-1 N/A
5
5
1
1
6
0
56-79
4/17 BOS
Wacha N/A
L1-8 N/A
6
4
2
0
3
1
46-70
4/10 SEA
Gonzales N/A
W10-4 N/A
5
4
4
4
4
2
48-79
9/24 TOR
Berrios N/A
W3-1 N/A
5.1
4
1
1
6
0
59-82

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
KC MIN
KC MIN
Consensus
+110
-126
+111
-130
+110
-130
+114
-135
+100
-118
+110
-130
+116
-136
+112
-130
+110
-130
+115
-135
+110
-135
+110
-130
Open
Current
Book
KC MIN
KC MIN
Consensus
+1.5 (-201)
-1.5 (+165)
+1.5 (-201)
-1.5 (+165)
+1.5 (-192)
-1.5 (+164)
+1.5 (-192)
-1.5 (+160)
-1.5 (+162)
+1.5 (-196)
+1.5 (-192)
-1.5 (+158)
+1.5 (-220)
-1.5 (+165)
+1.5 (-220)
-1.5 (+170)
+1.5 (-195)
-1.5 (+162)
+1.5 (-195)
-1.5 (+162)
+1.5 (-200)
-1.5 (+165)
+1.5 (-200)
-1.5 (+165)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
7.5 (-110)
7.5 (-110)
7.5 (-106)
7.5 (-116)
7.5 (-110)
7.5 (-110)
7.5 (-105)
7.5 (-115)
7.5 (-110)
7.5 (-110)
7.5 (-104)
7.5 (-118)
7.5 (-104)
7.5 (-118)
7.5 (-104)
7.5 (-118)
7.5 (-110)
7.5 (-110)
7.5 (-105)
7.5 (-115)
7.5 (-110)
7.5 (-110)
7.5 (+100)
7.5 (-120)