Toronto Blue Jays at Chicago White Sox Prediction For 5/28/2024

Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto Blue Jays

May 28, 2024

Chicago White Sox

Chicago White Sox
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago White Sox Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

  • Date: May 28, 2024
  • Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Kevin Gausman - Blue Jays
    • Mike Clevinger - White Sox


Betting Odds

Moneyline:Blue Jays -210, White Sox 180
Runline:Blue Jays -1.5 -130, White Sox 1.5 110
Over/Under Total:8.5 100


Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago White Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:Projected Win %:
Toronto Blue Jays - 65%Toronto Blue Jays - 61.31%
Chicago White Sox - 35%Chicago White Sox - 38.69%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago White Sox Betting Preview

In a matchup scheduled for May 28, 2024, the Chicago White Sox will face off against the Toronto Blue Jays at Guaranteed Rate Field. The White Sox, currently having a terrible season with a 15-40 record, will be the home team, while the Blue Jays, with a below-average season at 24-29, will be the away team.

On the mound, the White Sox are projected to start right-handed pitcher Mike Clevinger, who has struggled this season. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Clevinger is ranked as the #187 best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers. His win/loss record stands at 0-3, and his ERA is a disappointing 6.75. However, his 5.15 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky this year and is likely to perform better going forward.

Opposing Clevinger will be Kevin Gausman, the Blue Jays' right-handed pitcher. Gausman has been more solid this season, with a 3-3 record and a 4.47 ERA. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Gausman is ranked as the #41 best starting pitcher in MLB. His 3.21 xFIP indicates that he has been slightly unlucky, and he is expected to improve in future outings.

In terms of offense, the White Sox rank as the worst team in MLB this season, with a struggling batting average and a lack of power. On the other hand, the Blue Jays have an average offense, ranking 17th in MLB. They boast a strong batting average, but their power numbers are average.

Looking at the overall team performance, the White Sox have a weak bullpen, ranked 21st in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. In contrast, the Blue Jays have a more average bullpen, ranked 13th.

The betting odds heavily favor the Blue Jays, with a moneyline of -215 and an implied win probability of 66%. The White Sox, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +185 and an implied win probability of 34%.

Based on the projections, the Blue Jays have a higher implied team total of 5.01 runs, compared to the White Sox's low implied team total of 3.49 runs. However, it's worth noting that Clevinger, despite his struggles, projects to pitch an average of 5.2 innings and allow an average of 2.7 earned runs. Gausman, on the other hand, projects to pitch an average of 6.2 innings and allow an average of 2.4 earned runs.


Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Kevin Gausman in the 94th percentile when estimating his strikeout skill.

  • THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.


Extreme flyball hitters like Danny Jansen tend to be less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Mike Clevinger.

  • This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.


Bo Bichette has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (43.6%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball's 9th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

  • This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.


Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Corey Julks is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 71% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

  • The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.


The Chicago White Sox projected batting order ranks as the worst on the slate in terms of overall batting skill.

  • A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.


Game Trends

  • The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 13 games at home (+1.60 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 41 games (+7.20 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Danny Jansen has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 19 games (+7.80 Units / 38% ROI)


Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago White Sox Prediction

Final Score: Toronto Blue Jays 4.97 vs Chicago White Sox 3.68

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

-219
88% TOR
+185
12% CHW

Total Pick Consensus

7.5/-105
10% UN
7.5/-115
90% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

-1.5/-135
99% TOR
+1.5/+114
1% CHW

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
TOR
Team Stats
CHW
3.68
ERA
4.60
.238
Batting Avg Against
.242
1.24
WHIP
1.38
.294
BABIP
.295
8.0%
BB%
10.2%
25.1%
K%
24.3%
76.4%
LOB%
72.5%
.260
Batting Avg
.238
.415
SLG
.386
.746
OPS
.681
.331
OBP
.295
TOR
Team Records
CHW
16-15
Home
12-23
17-19
Road
5-28
28-26
vRHP
12-41
5-8
vLHP
5-10
16-19
vs>.500
6-32
17-15
vs<.500
11-19
6-4
Last10
2-8
12-8
Last20
3-17
16-14
Last30
7-23
K. Gausman
J. Woodford
139.0
Innings
N/A
23
GS
N/A
9-6
W-L
N/A
3.04
ERA
N/A
11.85
K/9
N/A
2.20
BB/9
N/A
0.91
HR/9
N/A
76.9%
LOB%
N/A
11.0%
HR/FB%
N/A
2.72
FIP
N/A
2.91
xFIP
N/A
.235
AVG
N/A
32.5%
K%
N/A
6.0%
BB%
N/A
3.05
SIERA
N/A

K. Gausman

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
5/1 HOU
Valdez N/A
W3-2 N/A
7
6
2
2
10
0
71-98
4/26 BOS
Pivetta N/A
W6-5 N/A
6
4
1
0
9
0
62-88
4/21 BOS
Houck N/A
W3-2 N/A
8
7
1
1
8
0
70-88
4/14 NYY
Severino N/A
L0-3 N/A
5.2
6
2
2
9
0
67-83
4/9 TEX
Dunning N/A
W4-3 N/A
5
8
3
3
5
0
57-80

J. Woodford

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
10/3 CHC
Mills N/A
L2-3 N/A
5
6
3
3
4
1
49-76
9/26 CHC
Thompson N/A
W4-2 N/A
5.1
6
2
2
1
2
55-83
9/21 MIL
Woodruff N/A
W2-1 N/A
5
2
0
0
5
1
51-84
9/14 NYM
Stroman N/A
W7-6 N/A
4
4
2
2
0
2
35-61
9/9 LAD
Gonsolin N/A
W2-1 N/A
4
3
1
1
3
2
38-66

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
TOR CHW
TOR CHW
Consensus
-210
+178
-219
+185
-218
+180
-225
+185
-225
+188
-220
+184
-200
+170
-215
+180
-225
+180
-225
+180
Open
Current
Book
TOR CHW
TOR CHW
Consensus
-1.5 (-133)
+1.5 (+102)
-1.5 (-133)
+1.5 (+111)
-1.5 (-135)
+1.5 (+110)
-1.5 (-135)
+1.5 (+114)
-1.5 (-134)
+1.5 (+102)
-1.5 (-134)
+1.5 (+112)
-1.5 (-129)
+1.5 (-104)
-1.5 (-129)
+1.5 (+105)
-1.5 (-145)
+1.5 (+105)
-1.5 (-145)
+1.5 (+122)
-1.5 (-130)
+1.5 (+110)
-1.5 (-130)
+1.5 (+110)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
8.5 (-115)
8.5 (-105)
7.5 (-117)
7.5 (-105)
8.5 (-115)
8.5 (-105)
7.5 (-115)
7.5 (-105)
8.5 (-105)
8.5 (-115)
7.5 (-115)
7.5 (-105)
8.5 (-112)
8.5 (-108)
7.5 (-118)
7.5 (-104)
8.5 (-115)
8.5 (-105)
7.5 (-105)
7.5 (-115)
8.5 (-110)
8.5 (-110)
7.5 (-115)
7.5 (-105)