Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction & Picks 5/28/2024

Boston Red Sox

Boston Red Sox

May 28, 2024

Baltimore Orioles

Baltimore Orioles
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

  • Date: May 28, 2024
  • Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Brayan Bello - Red Sox
    • Grayson Rodriguez - Orioles


Betting Odds

Moneyline:Red Sox 140, Orioles -165
Runline:Red Sox 1.5 -145, Orioles -1.5 125
Over/Under Total:8.5 -110


Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:Projected Win %:
Boston Red Sox - 40%Boston Red Sox - 38.17%
Baltimore Orioles - 60%Baltimore Orioles - 61.83%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

In an American League East matchup, the Baltimore Orioles will face off against the Boston Red Sox on May 28, 2024, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The Orioles, with a season record of 34-18, are having a great season, while the Red Sox hold a 27-27 record, indicating an average season for them.

The Orioles will be the home team and are projected to start right-handed pitcher Grayson Rodriguez, who has been performing well this season. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Rodriguez is ranked as the #43 best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers, highlighting his skill on the mound.

On the other side, the Red Sox will send Brayan Bello, also a right-handed pitcher, to the mound. Bello is considered above average, ranking at #73 in our advanced-stat Power Rankings.

Rodriguez has started 8 games this year, boasting a 5-1 win/loss record with an impressive ERA of 3.20. However, his 4.06 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky in his performance this year and could face some challenges going forward.

Bello, with 5 starts this season, holds a 5-2 record with an ERA of 4.04. His 3.54 xFIP indicates that he may have faced some unfortunate circumstances and could potentially perform better moving forward.

In terms of offensive prowess, the Orioles rank as the #7 team in MLB this season, while the Red Sox rank #9. The Orioles have an average team batting average ranking of #14, while the Red Sox have an impressive ranking of #3. Both teams have an average ranking in terms of home runs and stolen bases.

When it comes to the bullpens, the Orioles rank #20, while the Red Sox rank #26 in our advanced-stat Power Rankings. This suggests that the Orioles have a slightly better bullpen than the Red Sox.

According to the current odds, the Orioles are the betting favorites with a moneyline of -165, implying a 60% win probability. The Red Sox, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +145, indicating a 40% win probability.

The Game Total for this matchup is set at 8.5 runs, which is an average projection. Based on the current odds, the Orioles have a high implied team total of 4.74 runs, while the Red Sox have an average implied team total of 3.76 runs.

As the Orioles aim to continue their successful season, they have the advantage of playing at home with a strong offense. However, the Red Sox will look to defy the odds and rely on their solid batting average to challenge the Orioles' pitching.

With Rodriguez and Bello on the mound, both teams have capable starting pitchers, but the Orioles hold a slight edge in terms of overall performance. It will be interesting to see how these factors play out in what promises to be an exciting matchup between division rivals.


Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Brayan Bello has been granted a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying 4.8 more adjusted pitches-per-game than average.

  • Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.


Grayson Rodriguez will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Tyler O'Neill today.

  • Right-handed hitters perform better against left-handed pitchers (and visa-versa). This can have a huge impact on whether a hitter will perform well or struggle on any given day.


In today's game, Jarren Duran is at a disadvantage facing the league's deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 40.5% rate (97th percentile).

  • This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.


Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Grayson Rodriguez in the 88th percentile as it relates to his strikeout skill.

  • THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.


It may be smart to expect negative regression for the Baltimore Orioles offense in future games, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 6th-luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.

  • When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.


Game Trends

  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 15 of their last 21 games at home (+9.00 Units / 36% ROI)
  • The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 28 games (+8.30 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Ryan O'Hearn has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 16 games at home (+11.60 Units / 61% ROI)


Boston Red Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Final Score: Boston Red Sox 4.12 vs Baltimore Orioles 5.01

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

+148
14% BOS
-174
86% BAL

Total Pick Consensus

8.0/-102
12% UN
8.0/-118
88% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

+1.5/-142
8% BOS
-1.5/+120
92% BAL

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
BOS
Team Stats
BAL
4.32
ERA
4.12
.252
Batting Avg Against
.243
1.31
WHIP
1.28
.302
BABIP
.299
7.6%
BB%
8.3%
22.9%
K%
23.9%
72.8%
LOB%
73.2%
.262
Batting Avg
.251
.431
SLG
.420
.759
OPS
.737
.327
OBP
.318
BOS
Team Records
BAL
14-19
Home
22-12
19-15
Road
22-10
27-22
vRHP
30-17
6-12
vLHP
14-5
8-20
vs>.500
14-6
25-14
vs<.500
30-16
5-5
Last10
7-3
10-10
Last20
15-5
14-16
Last30
20-10
B. Bello
G. Rodriguez
113.1
Innings
81.0
20
GS
16
8-7
W-L
3-3
3.81
ERA
5.44
7.62
K/9
9.56
2.38
BB/9
3.56
1.35
HR/9
1.56
78.9%
LOB%
68.1%
16.7%
HR/FB%
18.9%
4.45
FIP
4.61
3.97
xFIP
3.86
.255
AVG
.260
20.0%
K%
24.7%
6.3%
BB%
9.2%
4.08
SIERA
4.16

B. Bello

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC

G. Rodriguez

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
BOS BAL
BOS BAL
Consensus
+133
-157
+148
-174
+140
-166
+150
-180
+132
-156
+150
-178
+135
-159
+143
-167
+140
-165
+150
-178
+140
-165
+145
-175
Open
Current
Book
BOS BAL
BOS BAL
Consensus
+1.5 (-147)
-1.5 (+125)
+1.5 (-147)
-1.5 (+120)
+1.5 (-142)
-1.5 (+124)
+1.5 (-142)
-1.5 (+120)
+1.5 (-142)
-1.5 (+130)
+1.5 (-142)
-1.5 (+118)
+1.5 (-157)
-1.5 (+135)
+1.5 (-157)
-1.5 (+123)
+1.5 (-140)
-1.5 (+122)
+1.5 (-140)
-1.5 (+118)
+1.5 (-145)
-1.5 (+115)
+1.5 (-145)
-1.5 (+120)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
8.5 (-115)
8.5 (-108)
8.0 (-116)
8.0 (-105)
8.5 (-115)
8.5 (-105)
8.0 (-118)
8.0 (-102)
8.5 (-110)
8.5 (-110)
8.0 (-120)
8.0 (-102)
8.0 (-120)
8.0 (-103)
8.0 (-115)
8.0 (-105)
8.5 (-115)
8.5 (-105)
8.0 (-115)
8.0 (-105)
8.5 (-115)
8.5 (-105)
8.0 (-115)
8.0 (-105)