Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets Game 1 Pick & Preview – 5/28/2024

Los Angeles Dodgers

Los Angeles Dodgers

May 28, 2024

New York Mets

New York Mets
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets Game 1 Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

  • Date: May 28, 2024
  • Venue: Citi Field
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Tyler Glasnow - Dodgers
    • Tylor Megill - Mets

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Dodgers -205, Mets +170
Runline: Dodgers -1.5 (-125), Mets +1.5 (+105)
Over/Under Total: 8

Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
Los Angeles Dodgers - 67.21% Los Angeles Dodgers - 62.5%
New York Mets - 37.04% New York Mets - 37.5%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets Betting Preview

In a highly anticipated National League matchup, the New York Mets are set to host the Los Angeles Dodgers at Citi Field on May 28, 2024. The Mets, currently having a tough season with a record of 22-30, will look to turn things around as they face the dominant Dodgers, who boast an impressive record of 33-22.

Both teams will send their talented right-handed pitchers to the mound. The Mets are projected to start Tylor Megill, who has shown promise with an ERA of 3.00 this season. However, according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Megill ranks as one of the worst starting pitchers in MLB. On the other hand, the Dodgers will start Tyler Glasnow, an elite pitcher who ranks as the 5th best in MLB according to our rankings.

This game marks the first of a double-header between the two teams, and it also kicks off their series. In their last games, the Mets secured a victory against the Giants with a score of 4-3, while the Dodgers suffered a loss to the Reds with a score of 4-1. The Mets were considered underdogs in their last game, as indicated by their closing Moneyline price of -105 and an implied win probability of 49%, while the Dodgers were heavy favorites with a closing Moneyline price of -200 and an implied win probability of 64%.

Offensively, the Mets rank 18th in MLB this season, with an average team batting performance. Their best hitter, Pete Alonso, has recorded 29 runs, 26 RBIs, and 12 home runs. In contrast, the Dodgers boast the 2nd best offense in MLB, with Shohei Ohtani leading the charge. Ohtani has played in 53 games, scoring 40 runs, recording 35 RBIs, and hitting 13 home runs. He has also showcased his speed with 13 stolen bases and impresses with a batting average of .336 and an OPS of 1.024.

Considering the projections, the Mets face a tough challenge against the powerful Dodgers offense, which has hit 186 home runs this season, ranking them second in MLB. Megill's high flyball rate of 52% may work to the Dodgers' advantage, as their power hitters could capitalize on his flyballs. Additionally, Megill's struggles with control, evident in his high walk rate, may give the patient Dodgers offense an opportunity to draw walks.

The betting odds heavily favor the Dodgers, with a moneyline of -205 and an implied win probability of 65%, while the Mets are considered underdogs with a moneyline of +175 and an implied win probability of 35%. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, also projects the Dodgers as the favorites with a win probability of 65%, while the Mets are projected to win with a probability of 35%.

Based on these stats, the Dodgers have a high implied team total of 4.67 runs, while the Mets face a low implied team total of 3.33 runs. THE BAT X projects the Dodgers to score an average of 5.64 runs in this game, while the Mets are projected to score 3.83 runs. Despite the Mets' struggles this season, anything can happen in baseball, and they will aim to defy the odds and put up a strong fight against the dominant Dodgers.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets Prediction

Final Score: Los Angeles Dodgers 5.2 vs New York Mets 3.72

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

-123
74% LAD
+103
26% NYM

Total Pick Consensus

8.5/-118
14% UN
8.5/-102
86% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

-1.5/+130
0% LAD
+1.5/-155
0% NYM

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
LAD
Team Stats
NYM
4.26
ERA
4.55
.239
Batting Avg Against
.248
1.24
WHIP
1.38
.288
BABIP
.297
7.8%
BB%
9.9%
23.0%
K%
22.5%
70.6%
LOB%
72.3%
.252
Batting Avg
.236
.456
SLG
.399
.795
OPS
.715
.339
OBP
.317
LAD
Team Records
NYM
22-12
Home
13-23
20-14
Road
15-14
24-19
vRHP
20-26
18-7
vLHP
8-11
10-7
vs>.500
9-18
32-19
vs<.500
19-19
6-4
Last10
6-4
11-9
Last20
8-12
17-13
Last30
11-19
G. Stone
J. Quintana
12.0
Innings
29.2
3
GS
5
0-0
W-L
0-4
12.75
ERA
3.03
6.00
K/9
6.07
6.00
BB/9
3.03
0.75
HR/9
0.00
52.0%
LOB%
71.1%
7.7%
HR/FB%
0.0%
5.02
FIP
2.93
5.71
xFIP
5.03
.444
AVG
.248
11.3%
K%
16.3%
11.3%
BB%
8.1%
5.89
SIERA
5.13

G. Stone

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC

J. Quintana

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
5/4 DET
Faedo N/A
W7-2 N/A
5
4
2
2
3
1
45-77
4/28 MIL
Peralta N/A
L2-3 N/A
5
4
1
1
9
0
48-78
4/22 CHC
Smyly N/A
W4-2 N/A
4.2
3
2
2
3
3
51-87
4/17 WSH
Corbin N/A
W5-3 N/A
4
5
3
3
2
3
46-85
4/12 CHC
Smyly N/A
L1-2 N/A
5.1
5
1
1
3
2
43-71

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
LAD NYM
LAD NYM
Consensus
-123
+103
-123
+103
-130
+110
-130
+110
-124
+106
-124
+106
-120
+102
-120
+102
-130
+110
-130
+110
-120
+100
-120
+100
Open
Current
Book
LAD NYM
LAD NYM
Consensus
-1.5 (+132)
+1.5 (-163)
-1.5 (+132)
+1.5 (-163)
-1.5 (+130)
+1.5 (-155)
-1.5 (+130)
+1.5 (-155)
-1.5 (+126)
+1.5 (-152)
-1.5 (+126)
+1.5 (-152)
-1.5 (+138)
+1.5 (-175)
-1.5 (+138)
+1.5 (-175)
-1.5 (+126)
+1.5 (-150)
-1.5 (+126)
+1.5 (-150)
-1.5 (+140)
+1.5 (-165)
-1.5 (+140)
+1.5 (-165)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
8.5 (-103)
8.5 (-118)
8.5 (-103)
8.5 (-118)
8.5 (-102)
8.5 (-118)
8.5 (-102)
8.5 (-118)
8.0 (-120)
8.0 (-102)
8.0 (-120)
8.0 (-102)
8.5 (-104)
8.5 (-117)
8.5 (-104)
8.5 (-117)
8.0 (-115)
8.0 (-105)
8.0 (-115)
8.0 (-105)
8.0 (-115)
8.0 (-105)
8.0 (-115)
8.0 (-105)