Arizona Diamondbacks vs Texas Rangers Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 28, 2024
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Brandon Pfaadt - D-Backs
  • Dane Dunning - Rangers

Betting Odds

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Texas Rangers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Texas Rangers Betting Preview

The Texas Rangers are set to face off against the Arizona Diamondbacks in an interleague matchup on May 28, 2024, at Globe Life Field. The Rangers, with a season record of 25-29, are having a below-average season, while the D-Backs, with a record of 25-28, are also below average.

The Rangers are projected to start right-handed pitcher Dane Dunning, who has a Win/Loss record of 3-3 this year and an ERA of 4.43. Despite his average ERA, Dunning's 3.69 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward. On the other side, the D-Backs are projected to start right-handed pitcher Brandon Pfaadt, who has a Win/Loss record of 2-3 this year and an ERA of 4.05. Pfaadt's peripheral indicators, such as his 3.50 SIERA and 3.14 FIP, suggest that he has been unlucky as well and is expected to improve.

The Rangers' offense ranks as the 15th best in MLB this season, with a notable ranking of 2nd in team batting average and 5th in team home runs. However, they struggle in the stolen bases department, ranking 25th in the league. On the other hand, the D-Backs' offense ranks as the 13th best, holding an average ranking in team batting average and home runs, but an impressive 3rd in team stolen bases.

Considering the matchup between Dunning and the low-strikeout D-Backs offense, the advantage may lean towards Arizona, as Dunning's high-strikeout ability may be less effective. However, Pfaadt's high-flyball tendencies could be trouble against the powerful Rangers offense, which ranks 5th in team home runs.

The betting market expects a close game, with the Rangers having a moneyline of +100 and an implied win probability of 48%, while the D-Backs have a moneyline of -120 and an implied win probability of 52%. Nonetheless, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects the Rangers as the favorite with a win probability of 55%, suggesting potential value in betting on the Rangers.

Quick Takes Arizona Diamondbacks:

Brandon Pfaadt is an extreme flyball pitcher (39.8% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #6 HR venue in MLB in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Eugenio Suarez is an extreme flyball batter and squares off against the strong outfield defense of Texas (#3-best on the slate today).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have been the 10th-unluckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better the rest of the season

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Nathaniel Lowe has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (85% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Texas's 89.8-mph average exit velocity since the start of last season ranks among the best in baseball: #2 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 17 games at home (+9.80 Units / 52% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 away games (+6.45 Units / 62% ROI)
• Josh H. Smith has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 12 games at home (+7.45 Units / 39% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Texas Rangers Prediction

Final Score: Arizona Diamondbacks 4.47 vs Texas Rangers 4.75

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