Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 28, 2024
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cole Ragans - Royals
  • Simeon Woods Richard - Twins

Betting Odds

Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins Betting Preview

On May 28, 2024, the Minnesota Twins will host the Kansas City Royals at Target Field. This American League Central matchup pits the home team, the Twins, against the Royals, the away team. Both teams have been performing well this season, with the Twins boasting a 29-24 record and the Royals leading the division with a 34-21 record.

Taking the mound for the Twins is right-handed pitcher Simeon Woods Richard, while the Royals will rely on left-handed pitcher Cole Ragans. Woods Richard, although ranked lower in THE BAT X projection system, has been having a solid season with a 1-0 record and an impressive 2.57 ERA. However, his xFIP suggests that he may be due for some regression in future performances.

On the other hand, Ragans has been exceptional this season, ranking as the 14th best starting pitcher in the league according to THE BAT X. With a 4-3 record and a 3.34 ERA, he has been a strong contributor to the Royals' success. His FIP suggests that he has been somewhat unlucky and may perform even better going forward.

In terms of offensive firepower, the Twins rank 16th in MLB, while the Royals rank 8th. However, the Twins excel in the home run department, ranking 7th in the league, while the Royals have a strong stolen base game, ranking 4th. The Twins' bullpen also ranks higher than the Royals' bullpen, sitting at 8th in MLB.

In the past week, the Twins' best hitter has been Alex Kirilloff, who has recorded 5 hits, 5 RBIs, and 2 home runs, with a batting average of .333 and an OPS of 1.108. On the other side, Garrett Hampson has been the Royals' standout hitter, with 6 hits, 1 stolen base, a batting average of .600, and an OPS of 1.492.

Analyzing the pitching and offensive matchups, it appears that Woods Richard may have the advantage against the Royals' power-deprived offense. His high flyball rate may be difficult for the Royals to turn into home runs. However, his low-walk approach may not be as effective against the Royals, who are the least walk-prone team in MLB.

Ragans, with his high strikeout rate, could pose a challenge for the strikeout-prone Twins offense. With the Twins ranking first in the league in strikeouts, Ragans' strength aligns well with their weakness.

According to the current odds, the Twins enter the game as slight underdogs with a +105 moneyline, implying a win probability of 47%. The Royals, with a -125 moneyline, have a win probability of 53%. Both teams are evenly matched, and the game total is set at 7.5 runs, indicating a low-scoring affair.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Because of his large reverse platoon split, Cole Ragans should be in good shape going up against 9 bats in the projected batting order who bat from the opposite side in today's matchup.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

MJ Melendez is penciled in 8th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 51% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Kansas City Royals' bullpen ranks as the 9th-worst out of all the teams in the game.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Byron Buxton pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.8% — 99th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball's 11th-deepest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 38 games (+4.54 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Run Line in 27 of their last 41 games (+11.40 Units / 20% ROI)
• Salvador Perez has hit the RBIs Under in his last 8 away games (+8.00 Units / 58% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Final Score: Kansas City Royals 4.35 vs Minnesota Twins 3.64

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