Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 5/28/2024

Miami Marlins

Miami Marlins

May 28, 2024

San Diego Padres

San Diego Padres
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

  • Date: May 28, 2024
  • Venue: Petco Park
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Jesus Luzardo - Marlins
    • Matt Waldron - Padres


Betting Odds

Moneyline:Marlins 110, Padres -130
Runline:Marlins 1.5 -190, Padres -1.5 165
Over/Under Total:7.5 -110


Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:Projected Win %:
Miami Marlins - 46%Miami Marlins - 44.5%
San Diego Padres - 54%San Diego Padres - 55.5%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres Betting Preview

The San Diego Padres will be hosting the Miami Marlins in a National League matchup at Petco Park on May 28, 2024. The Padres, with a season record of 29-28, are having an average season. On the other hand, the Marlins are struggling with a record of 19-36, making this a terrible season for them.

The Padres are projected to start right-handed pitcher Matt Waldron, while the Marlins will be countering with left-handed pitcher Jesus Luzardo. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Waldron is ranked as the #190 best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating that he is one of the worst in the league. On the other hand, Luzardo is ranked as the #48 best starting pitcher in MLB, signifying that he is a good pitcher.

Waldron has started 10 games this year, with a Win/Loss record of 2-5 and an ERA of 4.86, which is below average. However, his 4.03 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky this year and is likely to perform better going forward. Luzardo, on the other hand, has started 8 games, with a Win/Loss record of 2-3 and an ERA of 4.14, which is above average. His 3.55 xERA and 3.45 FIP indicate that he has also been unlucky and is expected to improve.

In terms of offense, the Padres rank as the #10 best in MLB this season. However, their team batting average is only #20 in the league, indicating room for improvement. They excel in home runs (#10) and stolen bases (#7). On the other hand, the Marlins have the #29 ranked offense in MLB, but their team batting average is #3, which is impressive. However, they struggle in home runs (#28) and stolen bases (#25).

When it comes to the bullpen, the Padres have the #5 best bullpen in MLB, according to our Power Rankings. In contrast, the Marlins have the #28 ranked bullpen, indicating a significant disadvantage for them.

Considering the projected starting pitchers, the offensive rankings, and the bullpen performances, the Padres are the favorites in this matchup. However, betting markets suggest that it will be a close game, with the Padres having an implied win probability of 54% and the Marlins at 46%.

The Game Total for this matchup is set at 7.5 runs, which is relatively low. The Padres have an average implied team total of 3.93 runs, while the Marlins have a low implied team total of 3.57 runs.


Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

The Miami Marlins infield defense grades out as the worst among every team in action today.

  • Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.


Nick Gordon hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.2% — 81st percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today.

  • This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.


Quick Takes San Diego Padres:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that Matt Waldron will tally an average of 17 outs in today's game.

  • THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.


The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luis Arraez as the best batter in Major League Baseball when it comes to his batting average talent.

  • THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.


Luis Campusano, the Padres's expected catcher today, projects as a horrible pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

  • Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).


Game Trends

  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 21 games at home (+10.65 Units / 42% ROI)
  • The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 15 of their last 21 away games (+8.30 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Jackson Merrill has hit the Runs Under in 26 of his last 34 games (+12.45 Units / 20% ROI)


Miami Marlins vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Final Score: Miami Marlins 4.16 vs San Diego Padres 4.39

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

+118
17% MIA
-139
83% SD

Total Pick Consensus

7.0/-102
3% UN
7.0/-118
97% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

+1.5/-185
17% MIA
-1.5/+154
83% SD

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
MIA
Team Stats
SD
4.18
ERA
3.83
.242
Batting Avg Against
.237
1.28
WHIP
1.28
.302
BABIP
.289
8.3%
BB%
9.0%
25.2%
K%
23.5%
72.5%
LOB%
75.4%
.262
Batting Avg
.240
.402
SLG
.413
.719
OPS
.739
.317
OBP
.327
MIA
Team Records
SD
12-25
Home
17-21
11-18
Road
19-14
20-24
vRHP
26-22
3-19
vLHP
10-13
7-17
vs>.500
13-11
16-26
vs<.500
23-24
4-6
Last10
4-6
9-11
Last20
11-9
13-17
Last30
15-15
J. Luzardo
M. Waldron
N/A
Innings
4.2
N/A
GS
1
N/A
W-L
0-1
N/A
ERA
3.86
N/A
K/9
3.86
N/A
BB/9
1.93
N/A
HR/9
3.86
N/A
LOB%
100.0%
N/A
HR/FB%
28.6%
N/A
FIP
8.63
N/A
xFIP
5.51

J. Luzardo

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC

M. Waldron

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
MIA SD
MIA SD
Consensus
+109
-118
+118
-139
+105
-125
+114
-135
-102
-116
+116
-136
+100
-118
+120
-141
+100
-120
+118
-140
+105
-125
+115
-140
Open
Current
Book
MIA SD
MIA SD
Consensus
+1.5 (-191)
-1.5 (+178)
+1.5 (-191)
-1.5 (+157)
+1.5 (-192)
-1.5 (+170)
+1.5 (-192)
-1.5 (+160)
-1.5 (+164)
+1.5 (-200)
+1.5 (-196)
-1.5 (+162)
-1.5 (+165)
+1.5 (-225)
+1.5 (-195)
-1.5 (+155)
+1.5 (-190)
-1.5 (+170)
+1.5 (-190)
-1.5 (+158)
+1.5 (-185)
-1.5 (+165)
+1.5 (-185)
-1.5 (+150)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
Consensus
7.5 (-115)
7.5 (-102)
7.0 (-116)
7.0 (-104)
7.5 (-115)
7.5 (-105)
7.0 (-112)
7.0 (-108)
7.5 (-120)
7.5 (-102)
7.0 (-115)
7.0 (-105)
7.5 (-114)
7.5 (-106)
7.0 (-125)
7.0 (+104)
7.5 (-115)
7.5 (-105)
7.0 (-110)
7.0 (-110)
7.5 (-115)
7.5 (-105)
7.0 (-120)
7.0 (+100)