Texas Rangers vs Colorado Rockies Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 11, 2024
• Venue: Coors Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Andrew Heaney - Rangers
  • Ryan Feltner - Rockies

Betting Odds

Texas Rangers vs Colorado Rockies Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Texas Rangers vs Colorado Rockies Betting Preview

On May 11, 2024, the Colorado Rockies will host the Texas Rangers at Coors Field in Denver, Colorado. This interleague matchup features two teams with contrasting performances this season. The Rockies, with a record of 10-28, have been struggling, while the Rangers have been having a good season with a record of 22-18.

The Rockies are projected to start right-handed pitcher Ryan Feltner, who has had a tough season so far. Feltner has started seven games with a win/loss record of 1-3 and an ERA of 5.54. However, his 3.85 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and may perform better going forward.

The Rangers, on the other hand, are projected to start left-handed pitcher Andrew Heaney. Heaney has started seven games with a win/loss record of 0-4 and an ERA of 4.50. Similar to Feltner, his 3.82 xERA indicates that he has also been unlucky and could improve in future outings.

In terms of offensive performance, the Rockies rank as the 23rd best team in MLB, while the Rangers rank 9th. The Rangers have an advantage in team batting average and home runs, ranking 2nd and 5th, respectively. However, the Rockies have struggled in stolen bases, ranking last in MLB.

Looking at the pitching staff, the Rockies' bullpen ranks 15th best in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the Rangers' bullpen ranks 9th. This suggests that both teams have average to above-average relief pitching.

Considering the implied win probabilities, the Rangers enter the game as favorites with a moneyline of -160, giving them a 59% chance of winning. The Rockies, with a moneyline of +135, have an implied win probability of 41%. However, it's important to note that these probabilities are based on betting odds and don't necessarily align with actual performance.

Overall, this game presents an interesting matchup between struggling pitcher Ryan Feltner and the powerful Rangers offense. Feltner's control issues could potentially limit the Rangers' ability to draw walks, negating one of their strengths. Meanwhile, Andrew Heaney's strike-throwing approach may not take full advantage of the Rockies' impatience at the plate.

With a high Game Total of 10.5 runs, this game is expected to have significant offensive action. The Rangers have a slightly higher implied team total of 5.78 runs, while the Rockies are projected to score 4.72 runs.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Andrew Heaney is projected to throw 85 pitches in today's game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 14th-least of the day.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Robbie Grossman is projected to hit 7th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 80% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

As forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the Texas Rangers are expected to tally the most runs (5.99 on average) of the day.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

With 7 batters who bat from the opposite side in the opposing team's projected offense, Ryan Feltner will be at a disadvantage while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this outing.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

The Texas Rangers have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Ryan McMahon has a strong chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

Compared to their .315 overall projected rate, the .290 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Colorado Rockies projected batting order in this game suggests this version of the lineup a good deal missing some of their usual firepower.

• Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

• The Colorado Rockies have hit the Run Line in 40 of their last 73 games (+10.10 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Texas Rangers have hit the Run Line in 77 of their last 141 games (+16.05 Units / 9% ROI)
• Corey Seager has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+7.20 Units / 180% ROI)

Texas Rangers vs Colorado Rockies Prediction

Final Score: Texas Rangers 5.99 vs Colorado Rockies 5.24

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