Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 11, 2024
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Taijuan Walker - Phillies
  • Jesus Luzardo - Marlins

Betting Odds

Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Betting Preview

In a National League East matchup, the Miami Marlins will take on the Philadelphia Phillies at LoanDepot Park on May 11, 2024. The Marlins will be the home team, while the Phillies will be the away team.

The Marlins are having a tough season with a record of 10-30, ranking them as one of the worst teams in the league. On the other hand, the Phillies have been performing exceptionally well with a record of 27-12, making them one of the top teams in the league.

The Marlins are projected to start Jesus Luzardo, a left-handed pitcher who has had a challenging season so far. In contrast, the Phillies are projected to start Taijuan Walker, a right-handed pitcher who has struggled this year.

According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Jesus Luzardo is considered an above-average starting pitcher, ranking at number 70 out of approximately 350 pitchers in MLB. However, Taijuan Walker is considered one of the worst pitchers in the league based on the same rankings.

Jesus Luzardo has started five games this season, with a win/loss record of 0-2 and an ERA of 6.58. Despite his high ERA, his 4.37 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better in the future.

Taijuan Walker has started two games this season, with a win/loss record of 2-0 and an ERA of 6.39. Similar to Luzardo, his 4.82 xFIP indicates that he has also been unlucky and may improve going forward.

In their last game, the Marlins lost to the Phillies by a score of 8-2. The Phillies were considered heavy favorites in that game, with a closing Moneyline price of -190 and an implied win probability of 63%.

The Marlins offense has struggled this season, ranking as the 29th best in MLB. However, they have shown strength in team batting average, ranking third in the league. The Phillies offense, on the other hand, has been impressive, ranking fourth overall.

Based on the current odds, the Marlins are considered underdogs with a moneyline of +110 and an implied win probability of 46%. However, THE BAT X projects the Marlins to have a win probability of 53%, suggesting potential value in betting on the Marlins.

With the Marlins looking to bounce back from their recent loss and the Phillies aiming to continue their strong season, this game is expected to be a close matchup. Both teams have talented hitters, with Bryan De La Cruz leading the Marlins and Alec Bohm leading the Phillies.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Out of all SPs, Taijuan Walker's fastball spin rate of 2112.1 rpm is in the 19th percentile since the start of last season.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Nick Castellanos has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (85% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The Philadelphia Phillies have been the 5th-luckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress going forward

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Jesus Luzardo has averaged 93.2 adjusted pitches per start this year, ranking in the 86th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Josh Bell's quickness has fallen off this season. His 25.92 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 24.74 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

The Miami Marlins bullpen projects as the 3rd-worst in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 54 games at home (+5.85 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 70 of their last 115 games (+10.30 Units / 6% ROI)
• Jake Burger has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 13 games (+10.80 Units / 58% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 4.51 vs Miami Marlins 4.47

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