Oakland Athletics vs Seattle Mariners Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 11, 2024
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Joey Estes - Athletics
  • Bryce Miller - Mariners

Betting Odds

Oakland Athletics vs Seattle Mariners Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Oakland Athletics vs Seattle Mariners Betting Preview

On May 11, 2024, the Seattle Mariners will face off against the Oakland Athletics in an American League West matchup at T-Mobile Park. The Mariners, with a record of 21-18, are having an above-average season, while the Athletics, with a record of 18-22, are having a below-average season.

The Mariners will be playing as the home team, giving them the advantage of familiar surroundings. They are projected to start Bryce Miller, a right-handed pitcher who has been performing at an average level according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Miller has a win/loss record of 3-2 and an excellent ERA of 2.61 this season. However, his xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky and could regress in future performances.

On the other side, the Athletics will send Joey Estes, a right-handed pitcher, to the mound. Estes is considered one of the worst pitchers in MLB according to our Power Rankings. He is projected to pitch 4.9 innings on average, with a below-average earned run projection and strikeout projection. Estes has struggled with giving up hits and walks, which could be a weakness the Mariners look to exploit.

In their last game on May 10, the Mariners faced the Athletics and came away with an 8-1 victory. They were the favorites in the game with a closing Moneyline price of -150 and an implied win probability of 58%. The Athletics, as underdogs, had a closing Moneyline price of +130 and an implied win probability of 42%.

The Mariners offense ranks as the 24th best in MLB this season, while the Athletics offense ranks 18th. The Mariners have been average in team batting average and home runs, while the Athletics have struggled with a low team batting average but have excelled in stolen bases.

Based on current odds, the Mariners are the betting favorites with a moneyline of -230, implying a 68% win probability. The Athletics are considered underdogs with a moneyline of +200 and a 32% win probability. However, THE BAT X projects a closer matchup, giving the Athletics a projected win probability of 37% compared to the betting market's estimate.

With a game total of 7.5 runs, the expectations are for a low-scoring game. THE BAT X projects the Mariners to score an average of 4.61 runs, while the Athletics are projected to score 3.69 runs.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

Because groundball pitchers have a substantial advantage over groundball hitters, Joey Estes and his 40.5% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a strong position in today's outing matching up with 4 opposing GB hitters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

J.J. Bleday is an extreme flyball batter and matches up with the weak outfield defense of Seattle (#1-worst of the day).

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

The Oakland Athletics have 6 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Lawrence Butler, Brent Rooker, Seth Brown, Tyler Soderstrom, Shea Langeliers, Max Schuemann).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Bryce Miller's four-seam fastball utilization has decreased by 14.1% from last year to this one (58.5% to 44.4%) .

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.

Jorge Polanco has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (97% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Seattle Mariners bullpen projects as the 9th-worst in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 34 of their last 54 games (+11.13 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Oakland Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 21 games (+8.39 Units / 33% ROI)
• Max Schuemann has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 7 away games (+7.00 Units / 100% ROI)

Oakland Athletics vs Seattle Mariners Prediction

Final Score: Oakland Athletics 3.71 vs Seattle Mariners 4.61

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