Kansas City Royals vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 11, 2024
• Venue: Angel Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Cole Ragans - Royals
  • Tyler Anderson - Angels

Betting Odds

Kansas City Royals vs Los Angeles Angels Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Kansas City Royals vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Preview

The Kansas City Royals will face off against the Los Angeles Angels on May 11, 2024, at Angel Stadium. The Angels, with a record of 14-24, are having a tough season, while the Royals are enjoying a great season with a record of 23-16. This American League matchup is the third game in the series between the two teams.

The Angels are projected to start left-handed pitcher Tyler Anderson, who has a solid ERA of 2.74 this year. However, his peripheral indicator, the 4.90 xFIP, suggests that he has been lucky and may perform worse going forward. On the other hand, the Royals are expected to start left-handed pitcher Cole Ragans, who has an impressive ERA of 3.38. His 2.36 FIP indicates that he has been unlucky and could potentially perform even better.

Anderson has started seven games this season, while Ragans has started eight. Anderson's win/loss record stands at 2-4, while Ragans is 2-2. Both pitchers have their strengths, with Anderson projected to pitch an average of 5.6 innings and allow 3.1 earned runs. Ragans, on the other hand, is projected to pitch an average of 5.3 innings and allow just 2.0 earned runs. Ragans also boasts an impressive strikeout projection of 7.0 batters per game.

In terms of offense, the Angels rank 17th in MLB, while the Royals rank 14th. The Angels have a solid team batting average, ranking 12th in the league, but struggle with stolen bases, ranking 27th. The Royals, on the other hand, excel in stolen bases, ranking 4th in MLB, but struggle with home runs, ranking 26th.

The Angels' bullpen is considered the 29th best in MLB, while the Royals' bullpen ranks 16th. However, it's important to note that these rankings are estimates of underlying talent.

Based on the current odds, the Royals are the betting favorites with an implied win probability of 56%, while the Angels are the underdogs with a 44% chance of winning. The Angels have a low implied team total of 3.73 runs, while the Royals have a high implied team total of 4.27 runs.

In this matchup, the Royals' offense may have an advantage against Anderson, who is a high-flyball pitcher, while the Angels' offense may struggle against Ragans, who is a high-strikeout pitcher.

Overall, the Royals seem to have the edge in this game, given their strong record and the performance of their starting pitcher. However, as always in baseball, anything can happen, and the Angels will be looking to turn their season around with a win at home.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Among all SPs, Cole Ragans's fastball spin rate of 2532 rpm grades out in the 96th percentile this year.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Extreme groundball bats like Salvador Perez tend to be less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Tyler Anderson.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Kansas City Royals bats as a unit have been one of the best in the majors since the start of last season (10th-) when assessing their 89.3-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Tyler Anderson is an extreme flyball pitcher (40.6% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #4 HR venue among all major league parks in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Kevin Pillar is penciled in 4th in the lineup in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 55% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

In today's game, Logan O'Hoppe is at a disadvantage facing the league's 10th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 37.2% rate (95th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Over in 42 of their last 73 games (+9.05 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 19 games (+11.10 Units / 58% ROI)
• Kevin Pillar has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games (+14.00 Units / 280% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction

Final Score: Kansas City Royals 4.98 vs Los Angeles Angels 3.94

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.