Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 11, 2024
• Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Triston McKenzie - Guardians
  • Mike Clevinger - White Sox

Betting Odds

Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox Betting Preview

In a highly anticipated American League Central matchup, the Chicago White Sox are set to face off against the Cleveland Guardians at Guaranteed Rate Field on May 11, 2024. The White Sox, who currently hold a disappointing 11-28 record this season, will be looking to turn their fortunes around against the Guardians, who boast an impressive 24-15 record.

Taking the mound for the White Sox is right-handed pitcher Mike Clevinger, who has struggled this season. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Clevinger is ranked as the 176th best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers. His record stands at 0-1 with an ERA of 13.50. However, his 11.26 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and may perform better going forward. Clevinger is projected to pitch around 4.2 innings, allowing an average of 2.1 earned runs, striking out 2.7 batters, and surrendering 3.9 hits and 1.2 walks.

Opposing Clevinger on the mound is Triston McKenzie, a right-handed pitcher for the Guardians. McKenzie has started seven games this season, recording a 2-2 record with a 3.97 ERA. His 5.35 xFIP indicates that he may have been fortunate so far and could see a regression in his performance. McKenzie is projected to pitch around 5.1 innings, allowing an average of 2.3 earned runs, striking out 4.2 batters, and giving up 4.6 hits and 1.5 walks.

The White Sox offense has struggled this season, ranking as the worst in MLB. They sit at the bottom of the league in team batting average, home runs, and stolen bases. In contrast, the Guardians offense ranks as the 15th best in MLB, with an average ranking in team batting average and a low ranking in home runs but a strong ranking in stolen bases.

The White Sox will be relying on their best hitter, Paul DeJong, who has been performing well over the past week with 10 hits, 8 runs, 6 RBIs, and 3 home runs. The Guardians will look to Josh Naylor, their top hitter in the last seven games, who has recorded 7 hits, 5 runs, 5 RBIs, and 3 home runs.

With the Guardians being the betting favorites and having a higher implied win probability of 60%, compared to the White Sox's 40%, this game is expected to be a challenging one for the struggling White Sox. However, anything can happen in baseball, and the White Sox will be determined to turn their season around and secure a victory against the Guardians.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Triston McKenzie is an extreme flyball pitcher (41.6% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #2 HR venue in the majors today.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Josh Naylor's quickness has fallen off this season. His 25.8 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 24.7 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cleveland Guardians' bullpen projects as the 4th-best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

With 8 hitters who bat from the other side in the opposing team's projected lineup, Mike Clevinger will not have the upper hand while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Nicky Lopez is an extreme groundball batter and matches up with the strong infield defense of Cleveland (#1-best on the slate).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Martin Maldonado pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.7% — 93rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 5th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 55 of their last 100 games (+9.95 Units / 9% ROI)
• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 64 of their last 117 games (+7.25 Units / 6% ROI)
• Paul DeJong has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 10 games at home (+6.00 Units / 50% ROI)

Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox Prediction

Final Score: Cleveland Guardians 4.7 vs Chicago White Sox 3.9

Check out all our free picks on every MLB game daily in our MLB betting section.