Texas Rangers

Texas Rangers

May 12, 2024

Colorado Rockies

Colorado Rockies
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Texas Rangers vs Colorado Rockies Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

  • Date: May 12, 2024
  • Venue: Coors Field
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Jose Urena - Rangers
    • Dakota Hudson - Rockies

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Rangers -150, Rockies 130
Runline: Rangers -1.5 -105, Rockies 1.5 -115
Over/Under Total: 11 -110

Texas Rangers vs Colorado Rockies Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
Texas Rangers - 58% Texas Rangers - 52.13%
Colorado Rockies - 42% Colorado Rockies - 47.87%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Texas Rangers vs Colorado Rockies Betting Preview

In a highly anticipated Interleague matchup, the Colorado Rockies will face off against the Texas Rangers on May 12, 2024, at Coors Field. The Rockies, who are having a terrible season with a record of 11-28, will be looking to turn things around against the Rangers, who are having an above-average season with a record of 22-19.

The Rockies will have Dakota Hudson on the mound, a right-handed pitcher who has struggled this season with a win/loss record of 0-6 and an ERA of 6.35. However, his 5.26 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and may perform better going forward. On the other side, the Rangers will start Jose Urena, a right-handed pitcher with a record of 1-2 and an ERA of 3.86. Despite his decent ERA, his 4.41 SIERA indicates that he may have been lucky and could perform worse in the future.

This game is the third in the series between these two teams. In their last game, the Rockies emerged victorious with a score of 8-3. The Rangers were the favorites in that game with a closing Moneyline price of -145, but the Rockies proved to be the better team. However, the Rangers have the advantage in the overall season standings and are considered to have a stronger offense.

The Rockies offense ranks as the 24th best in MLB this season, while the Rangers offense ranks as the 9th best. The Rangers have excelled in team batting average and home runs, ranking 2nd and 5th, respectively. Meanwhile, the Rockies have struggled in stolen bases, ranking last in the league.

According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, the Rockies bullpen is ranked 9th best in MLB, while the Rangers bullpen is ranked 10th best. Both teams have solid relief pitching, which could play a significant role in the outcome of this game.

The Rockies will rely on their best hitter this season, Ryan McMahon, who has recorded 21 RBIs and 5 home runs with a batting average of .303 and an OPS of .853. The Rangers' best hitter, Marcus Semien, has played in 41 games and recorded 31 runs, 29 RBIs, and 7 home runs with a batting average of .280 and an OPS of .791.

Dakota Hudson, a high-groundball pitcher, will face a powerful Rangers offense that ranks 5th in home runs this season. However, if Hudson can keep the ball on the ground, he may limit the Rangers' ability to capitalize on their power-hitting.

Jose Urena, a low-strikeout pitcher, will face a high-strikeout Rockies offense. Urena's strength lies in his ability to induce weak contact, which could give him an advantage against the Rockies.

The game total for this matchup is set at 11.0 runs, indicating a potentially high-scoring game. The Rockies are considered underdogs with a current moneyline of +130, while the Rangers are the favorites with a moneyline of -150.

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, projects the Rockies with a 48% win probability, slightly higher than the betting market suggests. This game is expected to be a close one, with THE BAT X giving the Rangers a 52% win probability.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Among all starting pitchers, Jose Urena's fastball velocity of 94.4 mph grades out in the 80th percentile since the start of last season.

  • Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Jonah Heim's quickness has decreased this year. His 25.77 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 24.86 ft/sec now.

  • Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that the Texas Rangers will tally 5.88 runs on average in this game: the most of all teams in action today.

  • THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Quick Takes Colorado Rockies:

Dakota Hudson is an extreme groundball pitcher (51.9% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Coors Field — the #9 HR venue among all major league stadiums — in this game.

  • This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.

Brendan Rodgers has experienced some negative variance in regards to his home runs since the start of last season; his 9.3 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is a good deal lower than his 19.1 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

  • xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Compared to their .313 overall projected rate, the .294 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Colorado Rockies projected offense today suggests this version of the lineup significantly weaker than usual.

  • Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today's lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren't accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Game Trends

  • The Colorado Rockies have hit the Run Line in 12 of their last 16 games at home (+9.25 Units / 56% ROI)
  • The Texas Rangers have hit the Run Line in 15 of their last 16 away games (+13.80 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Marcus Semien has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 18 of his last 29 games (+7.15 Units / 21% ROI)

Texas Rangers vs Colorado Rockies Prediction

Final Score: Texas Rangers 5.88 vs Colorado Rockies 5.35

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