Cincinnati Reds vs San Francisco Giants Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 12, 2024
• Venue: Oracle Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Frankie Montas - Reds
  • Kyle Harrison - Giants

Betting Odds

Cincinnati Reds vs San Francisco Giants Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cincinnati Reds vs San Francisco Giants Betting Preview

The San Francisco Giants will face off against the Cincinnati Reds on May 12, 2024, at Oracle Park. As the home team, the Giants will look to improve their 18-23 record this season, which has been a struggle for them. The Reds, with a record of 17-22, are also having a tough season. This National League matchup promises an interesting battle between the two struggling teams.

On the mound for the Giants is left-handed pitcher Kyle Harrison. He has started eight games this year, boasting a 3-1 win/loss record and an impressive 3.20 ERA. However, his 4.14 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky so far this season and could face challenges going forward. Frankie Montas will take the mound for the Reds. Montas, a right-handed pitcher, has started six games this year, with a 2-3 win/loss record and a solid 3.55 ERA.

The Giants offense has struggled this season, ranking 21st in MLB in team batting average and 19th in team home runs. Their offense has also struggled in stealing bases, ranking 29th in the league. On the other hand, the Reds offense has had its own struggles, ranking 26th in MLB overall. However, they excel in stolen bases, ranking 1st in the league.

According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, the Giants have the best bullpen in MLB, while the Reds rank 24th. This could give the Giants an advantage in the later innings of the game.

In terms of betting odds, the Giants are favored with a moneyline of -130, giving them an implied win probability of 54%. The Reds have a moneyline of +110, with an implied win probability of 46%. The game total is set at 7.5 runs, indicating a low-scoring affair.

Based on the projections, Kyle Harrison is expected to pitch an average of 5.0 innings, allowing 2.3 earned runs, striking out 5.0 batters, and surrendering 4.6 hits and 1.9 walks. Frankie Montas, on the other hand, is projected to pitch an average of 5.7 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs, striking out 5.6 batters, and giving up 5.3 hits and 2.0 walks.

Recent performance indicates that the Giants' best hitter over the last seven games has been Michael Conforto, recording 10 hits, 4 RBIs, and 2 home runs with a batting average of .435 and an OPS of 1.345. The Reds' best hitter over the last seven games has been Stuart Fairchild, who has recorded 1 home run with a batting average of .400 and an OPS of 1.400.

In this matchup, Kyle Harrison's low-walk pitching style may neutralize the Reds' patient offense, which ranks 6th in walks in MLB. On the other hand, Frankie Montas' low-strikeout approach may work in his favor against the Giants' strikeout-prone offense, which ranks 4th in strikeouts in MLB.

Overall, this game promises to be a close contest between two struggling teams. The Giants will look to capitalize on their strong bullpen, while the Reds will rely on their stolen base prowess. With the odds slightly in favor of the Giants, it will be interesting to see how the game unfolds at Oracle Park.

Quick Takes Cincinnati Reds:

Frankie Montas’s fastball velocity over his last 3 games started (94.8 mph) has been considerably faster than than his seasonal rate (93.8 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Elly De La Cruz is an extreme groundball hitter and matches up with the strong infield defense of San Francisco (#3-best of all teams on the slate today).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The Cincinnati Reds bullpen grades out as the 9th-worst in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Quick Takes San Francisco Giants:

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Kyle Harrison is expected to tally an average of 15.2 outs in this game.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Thairo Estrada has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (82% of the time), but he is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in today's game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Mike Yastrzemski pulls many of his flyballs (36.2% — 92nd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 75 of their last 121 games (+24.47 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 61 away games (+21.95 Units / 35% ROI)
• LaMonte Wade Jr has hit the Singles Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+7.40 Units / 91% ROI)

Cincinnati Reds vs San Francisco Giants Prediction

Final Score: Cincinnati Reds 3.82 vs San Francisco Giants 4.12

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