Oakland Athletics vs Seattle Mariners Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 12, 2024
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Alex Wood - Athletics
  • Luis Castillo - Mariners

Betting Odds

Oakland Athletics vs Seattle Mariners Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Oakland Athletics vs Seattle Mariners Betting Preview

In a highly anticipated American League West matchup, the Seattle Mariners will take on the Oakland Athletics at T-Mobile Park on May 12, 2024. The Mariners, with a record of 21-19, are having an above-average season, while the Athletics, with a record of 19-22, are having a below-average season.

The Mariners, as the home team, will have the advantage of playing in front of their home crowd. They will be looking to capitalize on their home-field advantage to secure a victory against their division rivals.

The Mariners are projected to start right-handed pitcher Luis Castillo, who is ranked as the #19 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Castillo has started 8 games this season, with a win/loss record of 3-5 and an ERA of 3.54. Despite his solid performance, his 2.87 FIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform even better going forward.

On the other hand, the Athletics are projected to start left-handed pitcher Alex Wood, who has been struggling this season. Wood has started 8 games with a win/loss record of 1-2 and an ERA of 5.30. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Wood is considered one of the worst pitchers in MLB.

The Mariners offense ranks as the #22 best in MLB this season, while the Athletics offense ranks as the #19 best. The Mariners have an average ranking in team home runs (#13) and team stolen bases (#18), while the Athletics excel in stolen bases, ranking #5 in MLB, but struggle in team batting average (#30).

Based on the current odds, the Mariners are the betting favorites with a moneyline of -230, implying a win probability of 68%. The Athletics, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +200, indicating a win probability of 32%.

With their superior pitching and stronger overall performance this season, the Mariners have a favorable position heading into this game. However, the Athletics' offense and their ability to capitalize on the weaknesses of Mariners' pitcher Alex Wood, who struggles with strikeouts, could make the game more competitive than expected.

As the game unfolds, fans can expect an exciting matchup between these division rivals, with the Mariners aiming to extend their above-average season and the Athletics looking to turn their below-average season around.

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

Alex Wood's 90.1-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 6th percentile out of all SPs.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Brent Rooker's 15.5% Barrel% (an advanced metric to assess power) grades out in the 94th percentile since the start of last season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Oakland Athletics have 6 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Shea Langeliers, Tyler Soderstrom, Seth Brown, Lawrence Butler, Max Schuemann, Brent Rooker).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Compared to the average starting pitcher, Luis Castillo has been granted an above-average leash this year, recording an additional 5.4 adjusted pitches each outing.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

This season, there has been a decline in Mitch Haniger's footspeed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 26.65 ft/sec last year to 25.65 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

The Seattle Mariners bullpen ranks as the 7th-worst in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 34 of their last 55 games (+10.13 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Oakland Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 21 games (+8.39 Units / 33% ROI)
• JJ Bleday has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 games (+10.20 Units / 102% ROI)

Oakland Athletics vs Seattle Mariners Prediction

Final Score: Oakland Athletics 3.18 vs Seattle Mariners 4.79

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