Minnesota Twins vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 12, 2024
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Bailey Ober - Twins
  • Alek Manoah - Blue Jays

Betting Odds

Minnesota Twins vs Toronto Blue Jays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Minnesota Twins vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

On May 12, 2024, the Toronto Blue Jays will face off against the Minnesota Twins in a thrilling American League matchup at Rogers Centre. The Blue Jays, with a record of 18-21 this season, are having a below-average year, while the Twins boast an impressive record of 23-16, indicating a great season for them.

The Blue Jays are projected to start right-handed pitcher Alek Manoah, who has started one game this year. Manoah's current ERA stands at 13.50, which is considered horrible. However, his 5.67 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky this season and is likely to perform better going forward. Manoah is expected to pitch an average of 5.2 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs while striking out 5.3 batters. However, he is projected to allow 4.7 hits and 2.2 walks, which are less than ideal.

Opposing Manoah on the mound will be Bailey Ober, a right-handed pitcher for the Twins. Ober has started seven games this season, with a win/loss record of 3-1 and an ERA of 4.42, which is average. His peripheral indicators, such as his 3.73 SIERA, 3.57 xERA, and 3.76 FIP, suggest that he has been unlucky as well and is likely to perform better in future games. Ober is projected to pitch 5.3 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs while striking out 4.8 batters. However, he is expected to surrender 4.8 hits and 1.2 walks.

When it comes to offense, the Blue Jays rank as the 23rd best team in MLB this season. However, they have the 5th best team batting average, indicating their strength in this area. The Twins, on the other hand, rank 12th in MLB overall, with the 7th highest number of home runs hit this season.

Considering the team rankings and the projected performance of the starting pitchers, the Twins enter the game as betting favorites with an implied win probability of 56%, while the Blue Jays are the underdogs with an implied win probability of 44%. The current moneyline sits at -140 for the Twins and +115 for the Blue Jays.

Overall, this game promises to be an exciting matchup between two teams with notable differences in their performance this season. The Blue Jays will look to overcome their below-average record and put up a fight against the strong Twins team. Stay tuned to see how it all unfolds on May 12, 2024.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Bailey Ober is an extreme flyball pitcher (41.2% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #8 HR venue among all stadiums in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.240) implies that Ryan Jeffers has been lucky since the start of last season with his .281 actual batting average.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

The Minnesota Twins have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Ryan Jeffers, Trevor Larnach, Edouard Julien).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Alek Manoah has gone to his change-up 11.7% less often this season (1.1%) than he did last season (12.8%).

• Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Since the start of last season, Davis Schneider's 17.8% Barrel%, a reliable standard for measuring power, places him in the 97th percentile among his peers.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Toronto's 88.6-mph average exit velocity since the start of last season is among the worst in the game: #23 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Under in 62 of their last 113 games (+11.40 Units / 9% ROI)
• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 49 of their last 84 games (+12.55 Units / 13% ROI)
• Max Kepler has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 7 games (+7.90 Units / 110% ROI)

Minnesota Twins vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Final Score: Minnesota Twins 4.35 vs Toronto Blue Jays 4.32

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.