Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 12, 2024
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Kyle Hendricks - Cubs
  • Bailey Falter - Pirates

Betting Odds

Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

The game on May 12, 2024, will feature an exciting matchup between the Chicago Cubs and the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park. The Pirates will be the home team for this National League Central showdown. Let's take a closer look at the key facts and factors leading into this game.

The Pirates enter this game with a season record of 18-22, which indicates a below-average season so far. On the other hand, the Cubs hold a record of 23-17, showcasing a strong performance this season. The Cubs are having a great season and will aim to continue their winning streak against the Pirates.

Bailey Falter is projected to start for the Pirates, while Kyle Hendricks will take the mound for the Cubs. Falter is a left-handed pitcher, while Hendricks is a right-handed pitcher. Both pitchers will play a crucial role in determining the outcome of this game.

This will be the third game in the series between the Cubs and the Pirates. In their last game, the Pirates emerged victorious with a close 10-9 win over the Cubs. The Pirates had a slight edge in their closing Moneyline price, indicating a competitive matchup.

According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Bailey Falter is ranked as the #228 best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers. While Falter's performance has been average this season, his peripheral indicators suggest that he may face challenges in future games.

Kyle Hendricks, on the other hand, has struggled this season with an ERA of 12.00. However, his 4.37 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky, and he could potentially perform better in upcoming games.

When it comes to offense, the Pirates currently rank as the #27 team in MLB, indicating a struggle in scoring runs consistently. Conversely, the Cubs rank as the #13 team in MLB, showcasing a more balanced offensive performance.

In terms of bullpen strength, the Pirates hold the advantage, ranking as the #6 best bullpen in MLB. In contrast, the Cubs rank #19. The Pirates' bullpen could play a crucial role in securing a victory if the game comes down to late-inning situations.

Based on the projections, both teams are expected to have a close game, with the Pirates having an average implied team total of 4.15 runs and the Cubs with a high implied team total of 4.35 runs. The projections indicate a potential high-scoring game.

As we look forward to this exciting matchup, keep an eye on the performance of the starting pitchers, the offensive output from both teams, and the potential impact of the bullpen. With the Pirates looking to build on their recent victory and the Cubs aiming to bounce back, this game promises to be an intriguing battle on the diamond.

Quick Takes Chicago Cubs:

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are typically a pitcher's least effective pitch. Kyle Hendricks has relied on his fastball a lot since the start of last season, though: 55.1% of the time, placing in the 100th percentile.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

As it relates to his home runs, Cody Bellinger has had positive variance on his side since the start of last season. His 29.5 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been a good deal higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 18.1.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Patrick Wisdom pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.5% — 98th percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball's 9th-deepest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

Out of all starters, Bailey Falter's fastball spin rate of 2001 rpm grades out in the 1st percentile this year.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Joey Bart has big-time power (83rd percentile) if he makes contact, but that's usually a big "IF" (32.2% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Kyle Hendricks struggles to strike batters out (5th percentile K%) — great news for Bart.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have 4 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Joey Bart, Jack Suwinski, Nick Gonzales, Oneil Cruz).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Over in 66 of their last 116 games (+13.20 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 49 games (+6.90 Units / 13% ROI)
• Jared Triolo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 22 games (+10.10 Units / 34% ROI)

Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Final Score: Chicago Cubs 4.66 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 4.57

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