Cleveland Guardians

Cleveland Guardians

May 12, 2024

Chicago White Sox

Chicago White Sox
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

  • Date: May 12, 2024
  • Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Logan Allen - Guardians
    • Mike Soroka - White Sox

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Guardians -165, White Sox 140
Runline: Guardians -1.5 -105, White Sox 1.5 -115
Over/Under Total: 9 -110

Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
Cleveland Guardians - 60% Cleveland Guardians - 56.13%
Chicago White Sox - 40% Chicago White Sox - 43.87%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox Betting Preview

The Chicago White Sox will face off against the Cleveland Guardians on May 12, 2024, at Guaranteed Rate Field. As the home team, the White Sox will have the advantage of playing on familiar turf. This matchup is part of the American League Central division, where both teams are looking to improve their standing.

The White Sox have struggled this season with a record of 12-28, making it a tough campaign for them. Meanwhile, the Guardians have been performing exceptionally well with a record of 24-16, suggesting they are having a great season so far.

On the mound, the White Sox are projected to start right-handed pitcher Mike Soroka, while the Guardians will likely start left-hander Logan Allen. Soroka has had a challenging season, with an 0-4 record and a high ERA of 6.34. However, his xFIP of 5.61 suggests he has been somewhat unlucky and may perform better going forward. Allen also faces struggles with a 6.41 ERA, but his 4.49 xFIP indicates he has been unlucky as well and could bounce back.

In terms of offense, the White Sox rank at the bottom of MLB, with the 30th best offense. Their ranking in team batting average and home runs is also low. On the other hand, the Guardians have an average offense, ranking 15th in MLB. Although their team batting average is average, they possess a good ranking in stolen bases.

When it comes to the bullpens, the White Sox rank towards the bottom at 26th, while the Guardians boast the fourth-best bullpen in the league. This could give the Guardians an advantage in closing out the game if they have a lead.

The White Sox's best hitter this season has been Paul DeJong, who has shown impressive performance over the last seven games. The Guardians' standout hitter in recent games has been Josh Naylor, who has been consistent and productive.

Taking into account the projected win probabilities, the Guardians are considered the favorite to win this game, with a higher implied win probability of 60% compared to the White Sox's 40%. The Guardians also have a higher implied team total of 4.74 runs, while the White Sox sit at an average implied team total of 3.76 runs.

Overall, the Guardians have been performing better this season and possess a stronger offense and bullpen. However, baseball games can be unpredictable, and both teams have the potential to turn things around. It will be an exciting matchup to see if the White Sox can challenge the favored Guardians or if the Guardians will continue their strong performance.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Out of all the teams on the slate today, the strongest infield defense is that of the the Cleveland Guardians.

  • Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.300) may lead us to conclude that Tyler Freeman has been unlucky since the start of last season with his .221 actual batting average.

  • xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

The Cleveland Guardians bullpen projects as the 4th-best in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

  • Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Generating 14.4 outs per outing this year on average, Mike Soroka places him the 19th percentile.

  • A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Korey Lee has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (89% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.

  • The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Paul DeJong pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.6% — 89th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 5th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

  • This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

  • The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 55 of their last 99 games (+11.10 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 65 of their last 118 games (+8.25 Units / 6% ROI)
  • Will Brennan has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 17 games (+14.70 Units / 86% ROI)

Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox Prediction

Final Score: Cleveland Guardians 4.96 vs Chicago White Sox 4.14

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Consensus

Moneyline Pick Consensus

-174
78% CLE
+145
22% CHW

Total Pick Consensus

9.0/-102
24% UN
9.0/-118
76% OV

Spread Pick Consensus

-1.5/-108
87% CLE
+1.5/-112
13% CHW

Stats

  • Team Stats
  • Team Records
  • Pitchers
  • Recent Starts
CLE
Team Stats
CHW
3.76
ERA
4.60
.240
Batting Avg Against
.242
1.27
WHIP
1.38
.286
BABIP
.295
8.3%
BB%
10.2%
21.3%
K%
24.3%
74.3%
LOB%
72.5%
.250
Batting Avg
.238
.380
SLG
.386
.693
OPS
.681
.313
OBP
.295
CLE
Team Records
CHW
18-6
Home
10-21
19-13
Road
5-21
27-16
vRHP
10-35
10-3
vLHP
5-7
14-7
vs>.500
8-28
23-12
vs<.500
7-14
8-2
Last10
1-9
14-6
Last20
6-14
19-11
Last30
10-20
L. Allen
M. Soroka
97.1
Innings
N/A
18
GS
N/A
6-5
W-L
N/A
3.33
ERA
N/A
8.78
K/9
N/A
3.51
BB/9
N/A
1.02
HR/9
N/A
80.8%
LOB%
N/A
10.8%
HR/FB%
N/A
3.99
FIP
N/A
4.23
xFIP
N/A
.250
AVG
N/A
22.9%
K%
N/A
9.2%
BB%
N/A
4.42
SIERA
N/A

L. Allen

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC
9/14 MIN
Barnes N/A
L3-6 N/A
3.2
7
4
4
3
1
39-63
9/6 MIN
Ober N/A
L2-5 N/A
5.1
8
5
5
4
1
55-86
9/1 KC
Kowar N/A
W5-3 N/A
6.2
5
3
2
3
2
47-76
8/27 BOS
Rodriguez N/A
L3-4 N/A
6
1
1
1
5
1
60-88
7/5 TB
Hill N/A
L8-9 N/A
3.1
7
5
5
0
2
40-65

M. Soroka

Date
Opp
W/L
IP
H
R
ER
SO
BB
ST-PC

Odds

  • MoneyLine
  • RunLine
  • Over/Under
Open
Current
Book
CLE CHW
CLE CHW
-175
+148
-174
+145
-162
+136
-170
+142
-176
+148
-174
+146
-175
+148
-177
+150
-165
+140
-170
+143
-160
+135
-165
+140
Open
Current
Book
CLE CHW
CLE CHW
-1.5 (-107)
+1.5 (-115)
-1.5 (-107)
+1.5 (-115)
-1.5 (+100)
+1.5 (-120)
-1.5 (-108)
+1.5 (-112)
-1.5 (-106)
+1.5 (-110)
-1.5 (-106)
+1.5 (-113)
-1.5 (-107)
+1.5 (-118)
-1.5 (-107)
+1.5 (-114)
-1.5 (+100)
+1.5 (-120)
-1.5 (-105)
+1.5 (-115)
-1.5 (-105)
+1.5 (-115)
-1.5 (-105)
+1.5 (-115)
Open
Current
Book
Over Under
Over Under
8.5 (-103)
8.5 (-118)
9.0 (-114)
9.0 (-107)
8.5 (-110)
8.5 (-110)
9.0 (-118)
9.0 (-102)
9.0 (+100)
9.0 (-122)
9.0 (-120)
9.0 (-102)
8.5 (-120)
8.5 (+100)
9.0 (-112)
9.0 (-109)
8.5 (-110)
8.5 (-110)
9.0 (-115)
9.0 (-105)
8.5 (-110)
8.5 (-110)
9.0 (-115)
9.0 (-105)