Kansas City Royals

Kansas City Royals

May 12, 2024

Los Angeles Angels

Los Angeles Angels
  • Overview
  • Consensus
  • Stats
  • Odds
  • Trends

Kansas City Royals vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

  • Date: May 12, 2024
  • Venue: Angel Stadium
  • Starting Pitchers:
    • Seth Lugo - Royals
    • Patrick Sandoval - Angels

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Royals -135, Angels 115
Runline: Royals -1.5 120, Angels 1.5 -145
Over/Under Total: 8 -110

Kansas City Royals vs Los Angeles Angels Win Probabilities

Implied Win %: Projected Win %:
Kansas City Royals - 55% Kansas City Royals - 46.24%
Los Angeles Angels - 45% Los Angeles Angels - 53.76%

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Kansas City Royals vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Preview

In a highly-anticipated American League matchup, the Los Angeles Angels will take on the Kansas City Royals at Angel Stadium on May 12, 2024. The Angels, who are having a rough season with a 15-25 record, will be the home team, while the Royals, with an impressive 24-17 record, will be the away team.

On the mound, the Angels are projected to start left-handed pitcher Patrick Sandoval, who has a record of 2-5 this season with an ERA of 4.85. Despite his numbers, our advanced-stat Power Rankings consider Sandoval the #37 best starting pitcher in MLB, suggesting that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward. On the other side, the Royals are projected to start right-handed pitcher Seth Lugo, who has been performing exceptionally well this season with a 5-1 record and an impressive 1.92 ERA.

The Angels offense has shown some power this season, ranking #3 in MLB in team home runs. However, they have struggled in other areas, ranking #27 in team stolen bases. The Royals, on the other hand, have a well-rounded offense, ranking #14 in MLB overall and #4 in team stolen bases.

In terms of bullpens, the Angels rank #29 in MLB, while the Royals rank #18. This could be a disadvantage for the Angels, as a strong bullpen can play a crucial role in close games.

Based on the current odds, the Royals are favored to win with an implied win probability of 55%. However, it's important to note that betting markets expect a close game, as the Angels have a +115 moneyline with a 45% win probability.

Overall, this game presents an interesting matchup between a struggling Angels team and a strong Royals team. While the Royals have the edge on paper, the Angels' power-hitting offense and home-field advantage could make for an exciting and closely contested game.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Seth Lugo has relied on his curveball 9.3% less often this year (20%) than he did last season (29.3%).

  • Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Nelson Velazquez's 21.1% Barrel% (a reliable metric to study power) grades out in the 99th percentile since the start of last season.

  • Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Kansas City's 89.3-mph average exit velocity since the start of last season is among the best in MLB: #10 overall.

  • Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Over his last 3 games started, Patrick Sandoval has experienced a notable drop off in his fastball spin rate: from 2012 rpm over the whole season to 1950 rpm recently.

  • Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.

Luis Guillorme's footspeed has fallen off this year. His 25.44 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 24.95 ft/sec now.

  • Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Logan O'Hoppe pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.2% — 95th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball's 10th-deepest LF fences today.

  • This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

  • The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 52 games (+8.80 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 55 games (+7.25 Units / 12% ROI)
  • Zach Neto has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 23 games (+8.75 Units / 27% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction

Final Score: Kansas City Royals 4.5 vs Los Angeles Angels 4.61

Check out all our free picks on every MLB game daily in our MLB betting section.

Subscribe to our newsletter to get our best bets every week!

*By clicking the "Subscribe" button, you agree to receive promotional emails.

Consensus

Stats

Odds