Kansas City Royals vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 12, 2024
• Venue: Angel Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Seth Lugo - Royals
  • Patrick Sandoval - Angels

Betting Odds

Kansas City Royals vs Los Angeles Angels Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Kansas City Royals vs Los Angeles Angels Betting Preview

In a highly-anticipated American League matchup, the Los Angeles Angels will take on the Kansas City Royals at Angel Stadium on May 12, 2024. The Angels, who are having a rough season with a 15-25 record, will be the home team, while the Royals, with an impressive 24-17 record, will be the away team.

On the mound, the Angels are projected to start left-handed pitcher Patrick Sandoval, who has a record of 2-5 this season with an ERA of 4.85. Despite his numbers, our advanced-stat Power Rankings consider Sandoval the #37 best starting pitcher in MLB, suggesting that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward. On the other side, the Royals are projected to start right-handed pitcher Seth Lugo, who has been performing exceptionally well this season with a 5-1 record and an impressive 1.92 ERA.

The Angels offense has shown some power this season, ranking #3 in MLB in team home runs. However, they have struggled in other areas, ranking #27 in team stolen bases. The Royals, on the other hand, have a well-rounded offense, ranking #14 in MLB overall and #4 in team stolen bases.

In terms of bullpens, the Angels rank #29 in MLB, while the Royals rank #18. This could be a disadvantage for the Angels, as a strong bullpen can play a crucial role in close games.

Based on the current odds, the Royals are favored to win with an implied win probability of 55%. However, it's important to note that betting markets expect a close game, as the Angels have a +115 moneyline with a 45% win probability.

Overall, this game presents an interesting matchup between a struggling Angels team and a strong Royals team. While the Royals have the edge on paper, the Angels' power-hitting offense and home-field advantage could make for an exciting and closely contested game.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Seth Lugo has relied on his curveball 9.3% less often this year (20%) than he did last season (29.3%).

• Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Nelson Velazquez's 21.1% Barrel% (a reliable metric to study power) grades out in the 99th percentile since the start of last season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Kansas City's 89.3-mph average exit velocity since the start of last season is among the best in MLB: #10 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Angels:

Over his last 3 games started, Patrick Sandoval has experienced a notable drop off in his fastball spin rate: from 2012 rpm over the whole season to 1950 rpm recently.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.

Luis Guillorme's footspeed has fallen off this year. His 25.44 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 24.95 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Logan O'Hoppe pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.2% — 95th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball's 10th-deepest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 52 games (+8.80 Units / 15% ROI)
• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 55 games (+7.25 Units / 12% ROI)
• Zach Neto has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 23 games (+8.75 Units / 27% ROI)

Kansas City Royals vs Los Angeles Angels Prediction

Final Score: Kansas City Royals 4.5 vs Los Angeles Angels 4.61

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