Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 12, 2024
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Zack Wheeler - Phillies
  • Braxton Garrett - Marlins

Betting Odds

Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Betting Preview

In a National League East matchup, the Miami Marlins will take on the Philadelphia Phillies at LoanDepot Park. The game is scheduled to be played on May 12, 2024. The Marlins, currently having a terrible season with a record of 10-31, will be the home team, while the Phillies, having a great season with a record of 28-12, will be the away team.

On the mound, the Marlins are projected to start left-handed pitcher Braxton Garrett, who is considered below average according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Garrett is expected to pitch around 5.1 innings and allow an average of 2.3 earned runs. He is projected to strike out 4.5 batters and allow 5.4 hits and 1.0 walks on average.

Opposing him will be the Phillies' right-handed pitcher Zack Wheeler, who is considered an elite pitcher according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Wheeler has been outstanding this season, with a record of 4-3 and an impressive ERA of 1.64. However, his 2.60 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky and could perform worse going forward. Wheeler is projected to pitch around 6.3 innings and allow an average of 2.2 earned runs. He is projected to strike out 6.6 batters and allow 5.5 hits and 1.3 walks on average.

The Marlins offense ranks as the 29th best in MLB this season, while the Phillies offense ranks as the 2nd best. The Marlins have struggled with home runs and stolen bases, ranking 28th and 25th respectively. On the other hand, the Phillies have excelled in team batting average and stolen bases, ranking 8th and 10th respectively.

Based on the current odds, the Marlins are big underdogs with a moneyline of +200 and an implied win probability of 32%, while the Phillies are big favorites with a moneyline of -230 and an implied win probability of 68%. The Game Total is set at 7.0 runs, indicating a low-scoring game.

With the Phillies having the better record and an elite pitcher in Zack Wheeler on the mound, they are favored to win this game. However, the Marlins, despite their struggles, have the advantage of facing a low-walk pitcher in Wheeler, which may work in their favor. It will be an intriguing matchup between a struggling Marlins team and a strong Phillies team.

Quick Takes Philadelphia Phillies:

Zack Wheeler's slider percentage has fallen by 14.9% from last season to this one (26.6% to 11.7%) .

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Johan Rojas has gotten much quicker this season, improving from last year's 29.35 ft/sec to 29.93 ft/sec now (according to Statcast's Sprint Speed metric).

• Fast players tend to get more hits as they leg out groundballs, more extra base hits, and more stolen bases.

The Philadelphia Phillies have been the 2nd-luckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress in the future

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Out of all starting pitchers, Braxton Garrett's fastball velocity of 89.9 mph ranks in the 6th percentile since the start of last season.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.148) suggests that Vidal Brujan has been very fortunate since the start of last season with his .218 actual batting average.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Miami Marlins' bullpen profiles as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams in the game.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 18 games at home (+6.55 Units / 34% ROI)
• The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Run Line in 40 of their last 75 games (+9.45 Units / 11% ROI)
• Jesus Sanchez has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 11 games at home (+7.70 Units / 62% ROI)

Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Final Score: Philadelphia Phillies 4.5 vs Miami Marlins 3.49

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